Our Faux Monsoon Continues!

Hummingbird

Great to see the hummingbirds back! This one from last fall. © 2022-Mark Langford

Monday 5-15-2023. 9:20am

*** Mark your calendar for Thursday, 18 May at 6:00pm. Arleen and Mark are doing a Pagosa Weather presentation at the library! ***

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 40 degrees. Winds gusted to 20mph.

Precipitation summary: Most of us recorded rain over the past 24hrs, with the rain lottery winners in Chromo again!

Screenshot 2023 05 15 084933
24hr rainfall totals ranged from 0.03 to 0.20 inches.
Screenshot 2023 05 15 080700
Today’s San Juan River flow is at 2540cfs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6980/ 19843014/ 1913

Forecast discussion…

A low pressure over Oregon will continue bringing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, giving us a chance for PM Poppers today. These storms will have a chance to produce small hail, lightning and gusty winds. By later today we transition into a zonal pattern and rain chances will lower until Wednesday, when an upper-level trough to our north will allow for disturbances to move through our area for the rest of the week. Rain odds ramp up on Wednesday-Friday, especially in the mountains, so an acceleration of snow melt could cause issues for our rivers and streams.

A reminder to hikers…afternoon storms can not only produce lightning and drop hail and brief heavy rain, but temperatures can drop quickly, producing the potential for hypothermia if you are not prepared with rain jackets, etc.

Screenshot 2023 05 15 082005
A low pressure over Oregon will continue bringing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, giving us a chance for PM Poppers today. By later today we transition into a zonal pattern and rain chances will lower until Wednesday, when an upper-level trough to our north will allow for disturbances to move through our area for the rest of the week.
Screenshot 2023 05 15 083529
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS predicts only 0.15 inches for Pagosa Springs, but closer to an inch for our mountains.
Screenshot 2023 05 15 091624 1
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.85 inches of rain for us over through this weekend.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 60’s. SE winds 5-10 mph, with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Zero-0.10 rainfall totals.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Zero-0.05 rainfall totals.

Wednesday-Friday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals 0.05 to 0.25 inches.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Zero-0.10 rainfall totals.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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