Chance for rain all week long!

PM Popper

A PM Popper drops some rain on Pagosa Peak at 12:30pm this afternoon. This will be a daily occurrence this week…

Happy Mother’s Day! – 5-14-2023. 1:30pm

*** Mark your calendar for Thursday, 18 May at 6:00pm. Arleen and Mark are doing a Pagosa Weather presentation at the library! ***

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 44 degrees. Winds gusted to 21mph.

Precipitation summary: Most of us recorded rain overnight, with the rain lottery winners in Chromo!

Screenshot 2023 05 14 084359
24hr rainfall totals ranged from 0.10 to 0.52 inches.
Screenshot 2023 05 14 125133
Today’s San Juan River flow is at 1830cfs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6784/ 19843015/ 1953

Forecast discussion…

As I was working on this post at 1pm, we started getting some pea size hail, followed by a brief, heavy shower about a mile north of Hatcher Lake! This will be possible from any of our afternoon storms this week.

Thanks to a low pressure in northern Nevada, a SE flow continues to bring in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico today. This added moisture in the mid-levels is allowing afternoon storms to erupt over the mountains and the valley. The low will eventually move out of the picture by tomorrow as it treks NW, but other rain triggers will take its place, giving us a chance for PM Poppers all week. Rain odds ramp up from Thursday-Saturday.

A reminder to hikers…afternoon storms can not only produce lightning and drop hail and brief heavy rain, but temperatures can drop quickly, producing the potential for hypothermia if you are not prepared with rain jackets, etc.

Screenshot 2023 05 14 122600
A low pressure over northern Nevada is bringing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, giving us a chance for PM Poppers today.
Screenshot 2023 05 14 122940
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS predicts almost a third of an inch of rain for our area.
Screenshot 2023 05 14 124036
The latest NBM model is predicting over an inch of rain for us over the next week.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 60’s. SE winds 5-10 mph, with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. 0.05-0.20 rainfall.

Monday-Weds: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms.

Thursday-Friday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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Mark Langford

Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford
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