70’s by Sunday!

Climate Workshop

Come join us on Friday for an evening with Climate and Weather Experts at 6pm at the CSU Extension Building at 344 HWY 84. Arleen will be there along with Peter Goble-Climatologist and Water Availability Specialist.

Friday – 28 April. 2023 – 8:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 37 degrees. Winds gusted to 29mph.

Precipitation summary: Most of us reported either zero or a trace of precipitation from this morning’s showers. Looking at Wolf Creek Pass traffic cam images, it appears they could have had 1-2 inches of snow overnight.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6176/ 19922614/ 1991

Forecast discussion…

As expected, moisture from today’s cold front stayed to our east and NE, with the exception of Wolf Creek Pass, which appears to have gotten 1-2 inches of snow overnight. High pressure moves in for the weekend and we could see our first 70-degree temperatures as early as Sunday. That could prompt some upper-elevation snow melt, so we will need to keep an eye on nearby river flows. There is a tiny chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but as of this post, the upcoming week looks mainly dry.

Screenshot 2023 04 25 171751
The latest CPC forecast for May is pretty much a flip of the coin for precipitation and temperatures.
Screenshot 2023 04 28 081643
The latest GFS extended forecast hints at a pattern change around the middle of May, leaning towards a wet second half of the month.
Screenshot 2023 04 28 081424
Always take long-range forecasts with a grain of salt, but the latest long-range Euro model looks promising for a fairly wet May.
gfs ensemble extended all avg cw total precip inch 5577600
Always take long-range forecasts with a grain of salt, but the latest long-range GFS model also looks promising for a fairly wet May.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 50’s. North winds 10-15mph with gusts to 30mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s and highs in the low to mid 60’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Sunday-Monday: Mostly sunny with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and highs in the mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph. A tiny chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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