Cold front will move through tonight…

One of the “spotty showers” yesterday – Pic taken 4/12/2023

One of the “spotty showers” yesterday – Pic taken 4/12/2023

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Thursday – 13 Apr 2023 – 3:30pm

The past…

Due to communication outages, much of the data for Stevens Field is missing from yesterday. The high temperature as of 3pm today has been 59. Here in the southern end of O’Neal Park our high yesterday was 58 and our low this morning was 35. Our peak wind yesterday was 24mph and so far today we’ve hit 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5874 / 1988238 / 1980

Precipitation summary… A couple of light spotty showers moved across parts of the county yesterday.  Precip was just enough to wet the ground in a couple of places.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip amounts range from zero to 0.02”.  Most reports were “T” for a trace.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip amounts range from zero to 0.02”.  Most reports were “T” for a trace.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s not as ominous as it looks.  Those are mostly mid and high clouds ahead of the system moving through tonight and tomorrow.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s not as ominous as it looks.  Those are mostly mid and high clouds ahead of the system moving through tonight and tomorrow.
Radar this afternoon – Those are mostly light scattered showers across the region.
Radar this afternoon – Those are mostly light scattered showers across the region.

Important highlights…

*** High run-off and saturated soil are causing problems across the county.  ***

River flow…

San Juan River, top, hit 2,100cfs last night.  The Piedra River, bottom, hit 3,230cfs this morning.  Navajo Reservoir yesterday had an inflow of 5,215* and an outflow of 288cfs. *That is the highest inflow so far this spring. It rose very close to a foot in 24 hours.
San Juan River, top, hit 2,100cfs last night.  The Piedra River, bottom, hit 3,230cfs this morning. 

Navajo Reservoir yesterday had an inflow of 5,215* and an outflow of 288cfs. *That is the highest inflow so far this spring. It rose very close to a foot in 24 hours.

Today and tomorrow… A cold front will move through the area tonight. Clouds and winds will increase, and we’ll see scattered showers, an isolated thunderstorm, cooler temps, and even a few snowflakes. More details are below.

Temps… Today highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Friday highs will be 5-10 degrees cooler in the mid-40s to low-50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

An interesting note about temps this afternoon… Locations where snow is still covering most of the ground have temps in the low to mid-50s while places where most of the snow has melted is in the low to mid-60s.  

Winds… This afternoon gusts will be in the 25-30mph range. The mountains on Thursday will have gusts in the 55-65mph range. Friday winds will decrease a little with peak gusts in the 20-25mph range.

Precip timing… The first few scattered showers will develop over the mountains late this evening and then over the valley after midnight.  The best chance for precip will be early Friday morning to Friday afternoon. There is also a chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Spotty showers will linger over the mountains into Friday evening.

Precip amounts…

Mountains above 10,000ft: 3-6” of snow

Valley: For rain, less than 0.10” though the lucky spots could get up to 0.20”. For snow, a dusting is possible for most folks but people above 8,000ft and closer to the mountains could get up to a half inch of snow. Snow is unlikely to stick on warm surfaces.

NWS precip indicates 0.10” near Pagosa and 0.40” near Wolf Creek Pass
NWS precip indicates 0.10” near Pagosa and 0.40” near Wolf Creek Pass
NWS snowfall indicates no measurable snowfall for most of the valley and 5” near Wolf Creek Pass. The higher peaks of the southern San Juans could get up to 10”.
NWS snowfall indicates no measurable snowfall for most of the valley and 5” near Wolf Creek Pass. The higher peaks of the southern San Juans could get up to 10”.

Saturday through Tuesday… Ridging will build back into the region and give us lots of sun and pleasant spring temps.

Temps… Saturday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.  Sunday through Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Winds… Peaks will be in the 10-20mph range Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoons. Winds will be a little stronger Tuesday afternoon with peaks in the 20-25mph range.

My next post will either be tomorrow afternoon or Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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