Another glorious day! Slight chance for showers Wednesday through Friday…

Beautiful day for fishing! – Pic taken 4/10/2023

Beautiful day for fishing! – Pic taken 4/10/2023

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Tuesday – 11 Apr 2023 – 12:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 65 and the low this morning was 29. Our low in the southern end of O’Neal Park was 24. There is still no wind data for the airfield. Our peak wind was 4mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5777 / 1916232 / 1951

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip has fallen recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s colorful! Orange is dry air – it’s dry over the Four Corners region. The ridge, jagged blue line, has just pushed slightly to our east.  The green arrows indicate a weak sub-tropical moisture plume. The yellow arrows depict the jet stream – It's well to our north. The trough off the Pacific NW coast will broaden and slowly push east over the next few days.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s colorful! Orange is dry air – it’s dry over the Four Corners region. The ridge, jagged blue line, has just pushed slightly to our east.  The green arrows indicate a weak sub-tropical moisture plume. The yellow arrows depict the jet stream – It’s well to our north. The trough off the Pacific NW coast will broaden and slowly push east over the next few days.

There is nothing significant on radar this afternoon in our region.

Important highlights…

*** Warming temps will result in melting snow, increased run-off, higher streams, and water pooling in low areas. ***

River flow…

San Juan River, top, hit almost 1,100cfs last night.  The Piedra River, bottom, hit 1,700cfs this morning.  I think they’ll rise more over the next two days with temps 10 degrees warmer than average.  And we’re just getting started!  Navajo Reservoir yesterday had an inflow of 2,765 and an outflow of 287cfs.  It rose half a foot in 24 hours. So far Navajo Reservoir has risen 12 feet from its low back in late February!
San Juan River, top, hit almost 1,100cfs last night.  The Piedra River, bottom, hit 1,700cfs this morning.  I think they’ll rise more over the next two days with temps 10 degrees warmer than average.  And we’re just getting started! 
Navajo Reservoir yesterday had an inflow of 2,765 and an outflow of 287cfs.  It rose half a foot in 24 hours. So far Navajo Reservoir has risen 12 feet from its low back in late February!

Today… A strong ridge is in control. We’ll continue to have lots of sun and warm temps. Highs will be 10 degrees above average.

*** Break out the shorts and t-shirts – It’s going to be really nice! ***

Temps… Tuesday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s. The warm spots will hit 70 degrees!

Winds… Peaks this afternoon will be in the 5-10mph range.

Wednesday through Friday… A broad trough will develop over the western US and slowly move east. I expect a few more clouds, a few scattered showers, and gustier winds.

There is a slight chance for showers on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, mostly over the mountains. The best chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two is Friday morning to Friday afternoon. Precip will be spotty. I think most of us will hardly get anything.

Temps… Wednesday will still be warm with highs in the low 60s to low 70s and lows in the low to high 30s.  Thursday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Friday will be the coolest day of the week with highs in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows in the high teens to high 20s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts Wednesday and Friday will be in the 20-25mph range. Winds Thursday afternoon will be slightly stronger with gusts in the 25-30mph range. The windy spots could hit 35mph. The mountains on Thursday will have gusts in the 50-60mph range.

Snow amounts…

Mountains above 10,000ft: 1-4” with most of it falling on Friday

Valley: lucky spots could get a dusting on Friday

On the left, Euro ensemble total precip to Friday at 6pm shows 0.27” near Pagosa. On the right, the GFS ensemble total precip to Friday at 6pm shows 0.42” near Pagosa. Other models are expecting less than 0.10”.  Precip will be spotty so amounts will vary but I’m expecting most of us to get less than 0.10”.
On the left, Euro ensemble total precip to Friday at 6pm shows 0.27” near Pagosa. On the right, the GFS ensemble total precip to Friday at 6pm shows 0.42” near Pagosa. Other models are expecting less than 0.10”.  Precip will be spotty so amounts will vary but I’m expecting most of us to get less than 0.10”.
NBM max wind gusts on Thursday at 3pm shows 33mph near Pagosa, 32mph near Chama, and nearly 60mph for our mountains.
NBM max wind gusts on Thursday at 3pm shows 33mph near Pagosa, 32mph near Chama, and nearly 60mph for our mountains.

Saturday and Sunday… Ridging will build back into the region and give us lots of sun and pleasant spring temps.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds… Peaks will be in the 10-15mph range each afternoon.

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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