Dry until Monday evening…

Multiple cloud layers this morning – Pic taken 3/31/2023

Multiple cloud layers this morning – Pic taken 3/31/2023

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Friday – 31 Mar 2023 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature in the last 24 hours was 48 and the low this morning was 23. Our low in the southern end of O’Neal Park was 11. There is still no wind data for the airfield. Our peak wind was 46mph around 3pm yesterday. The Wolf Creek summit/Lobo Overlook sensor had a peak wind of 76mph at 3:15pm yesterday.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5372 / 1966193 / 1931

Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported 8” of new snow this morning and another 2” during the day for a storm total of 10”.  Snow amounts in valley were mostly in the 0.50” to 1.1” range – just enough to make the roads slick this morning.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from 0.50” to 2.5”.  Hillary was the outlier near Chromo.  Everyone else had 1.1” or less.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from 0.50” to 2.5”.  Hillary was the outlier near Chromo.  Everyone else had 1.1” or less.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Yesterday’s system has pushed to our east and we are slowly drying out. The ridge, blue jagged line, will keep us dry through the weekend. The low off the southern coast will miss us to the south and won’t impact us. The Monday night/Tuesday system will develop to the northwest over the next few days.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Yesterday’s system has pushed to our east and we are slowly drying out. The ridge, blue jagged line, will keep us dry through the weekend. The low off the southern coast will miss us to the south and won’t impact us. The Monday night/Tuesday system will develop to the northwest over the next few days.

There is nothing significant on radar this afternoon in our region.

Important highlights…

*** High temps on Monday will be in the 50s and then Tuesday highs will be 20 degrees colder behind another cold front.  It’s yo-yo season in the Rockies! ***

*** It will be windy Monday afternoon, through Monday night, and into Tuesday afternoon. ***

*** Wednesday morning the cold spots could dip below the record low of 6. ***

Today through Sunday… Transient ridging will dry us out and give us lots of sun.

Temps… Today highs are in the mid-30s to mid-40s, and lows tonight will be in the high single digits to around 20. Saturday and Sunday will be warmer with highs in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Winds… This afternoon gusts in the valley have been in the 20-30mph range and gusts in the mountains are in the 30-40mph range. Peak winds Saturday afternoon will be around 15mph. Sunday afternoon winds will peak in the 15-25mph range.

Monday and Tuesday… Another cold front will move through.  It looks like yesterday’s system – mostly a wind producer.  The best chance for precip is Monday night into early Tuesday afternoon.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will in the 20-30 range.  Tuesday will be considerably cooler with highs in the 30-40 range and lows in the high single digits to mid-teens. 

This is what I call “yo-yo season”. One day it’s sunny with temps in the 50s and the next day it’s snowing with temps in the 30s.

Winds… Winds will pick up Monday around noon and then stay gusty through Monday night and into Tuesday afternoon. Gusts in the valley will be in the 35-45mph range and gusts in the mountains will be in the 60-75mph range.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 0-2”

Mountains above 9,000ft: 5-10”

WPC 24-hour precip from Monday at 6pm to Tuesday at 6pm shows 0.17” near Pagosa and 0.60” to 0.80” in our mountains. This would result in 1-2” of snow in the valley and 5-10” for the mountains.
WPC 24-hour precip from Monday at 6pm to Tuesday at 6pm shows 0.17” near Pagosa and 0.60” to 0.80” in our mountains. This would result in 1-2” of snow in the valley and 5-10” for the mountains.
NBM wind gusts on Monday at 3pm show 48mph near Pagosa and 75mph in our mountains.
NBM wind gusts on Monday at 3pm show 48mph near Pagosa and 75mph in our mountains.

Wednesday and Thursday… A secondary trough will try to move through late Thursday.  Most of the storm energy and moisture will stay to our north but we have a shot at scattered showers.

Temps… Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to around 20. Highs on Tuesday will be 40-50 and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range.

Snow amounts…

Valley: up to a half inch but it will be spotty

Mountains above 9,000ft: 1-3”

I’ll do the March summary & April outlook tomorrow. The next forecast post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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