Breezy afternoons – Dry through Wednesday…

Pagosa Peak and frosted trees – Love our winter wonderland! – Pic taken 3/2/2023

Pagosa Peak and frosted trees – Love our winter wonderland! – Pic taken 3/2/2023

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Sunday – 5 Mar 2023 – 5:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 43 and the low this morning was 16. Our low was -1 in O’Neal Park. Winds at the airfield peaked at 40mph this afternoon.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4362 / 197212-21 / 1966

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – A low is spinning off the Pacific NW coast with a weak trough extending south. A ridge extends north through the central part of the country. Between the two is a strong jet stream (purple arrows) and lots of clouds.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – A low is spinning off the Pacific NW coast with a weak trough extending south. A ridge extends north through the central part of the country. Between the two is a strong jet stream (purple arrows) and lots of clouds.
Radar this afternoon – There are mostly light scattered showers across the western US, but nothing is organized.
Radar this afternoon – There are mostly light scattered showers across the western US, but nothing is organized.

Monday through Wednesday… We will be between a ridge extending north through the central part of the country and a trough along the West Coast. This means we’ll see patches of mid and upper high clouds, seasonal temps, and breezy afternoons.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds… Peak winds will be around 20mph each afternoon. The windy spots could see 25mph on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday… The pattern will remain weak and disorganized, but moisture will gradually increase. Rapid moving, barely discernible troughs could trigger occasional snowshowers anytime during this period. It’s a pesky pattern to forecast. My expectations for snow are minimal.

Temps… Thursday Highs will be in the high-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low-single digits to mid-teens. Friday through Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds… Winds will peak in the 15-20mph range each afternoon.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 0-1”

Mountains: 2-6”

NBM snowfall to Sunday evening – This forecast model and most of the others indicate a pesky, disorganized weather pattern. The best moisture and the limited storm energy are expected to stay to our north. This model and most of the others show less than an inch of snow in the valley and 3-5” in our mountains. We’ll be dry most of this period, but spotty off and on showers are possible anytime.
NBM snowfall to Sunday evening – This forecast model and most of the others indicate a pesky, disorganized weather pattern. The best moisture and the limited storm energy are expected to stay to our north. This model and most of the others show less than an inch of snow in the valley and 3-5” in our mountains.
We’ll be dry most of this period, but spotty off and on showers are possible anytime.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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