Pagosa Peak emerges after four days of clouds and snow – Pic taken 2/24/2023
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Saturday – 25 Feb 2023 – 11:45am
At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 35. The low was 13 around 1am last night. Winds at the airfield peaked at 21mph at 11:35am yesterday.
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|44||68 / 1986||10||-15 / 1909|
Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported another 3” in the last 24 hours and 45” for a storm total. A few CoCoRaHS observers reported a little more snow, but it was mostly done yesterday morning.
And how about our snowpack? Check out the before and after data below.
Saturday… We’ll see quite a few mid and high level clouds. A snowflake or two is possible in the mountains but I don’t expect any accumulation. Temps will be warmer, and winds will be lighter.
Temps… Highs will be mid to high 40s and lows will be mid-teens to mid-20s.
Sunday… The next system will move through with more clouds and another round of snow. This storm will move through quickly and won’t have much moisture. Snow amounts aren’t impressive but unfortunately strong winds will cause blowing snow and poor visibility.
Hit and miss snowshowers will start in the mountains around sunrise and then in valley 2-3 hours later. Snow and winds will ramp up ahead of the cold front starting around 10am in the western part of Archuleta County. *** The cold front will move through the county 11am to 2pm and bring a burst of heavy snow, blowing snow, gusty winds, poor visibility, and poor travel conditions. *** Hit and miss snowshowers will continue to move through into the early evening, especially over the mountains.
Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.
Winds… Peak gusts will be in the 30-40mph range during the middle of the day as the system moves through. Winds in the mountains will gust 50-60mph.
My snow forecast…
Monday… There is a short lull between systems. During the day, we’ll have partly cloudy skies and light winds. Clouds will increase Monday night and we could see a few snowflakes, especially in the mountains. By sunrise Tuesday, a dusting of snow is possible in the valley and 1-3” is possible in the mountains.
Winds… Mostly in the 10-15mph range during the afternoon but the windy spots could see a peak around 20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Tuesday through Thursday morning… Another system will move through. We are seeing a “battle of the forecast models” which doesn’t inspire forecast confidence. The GFS is being emphatic about a decent storm while most of the other models expect a more moderate storm. In this case, I lean toward the majority and the better track record. Either way, there is considerable uncertainty. Forecast model snow amounts this morning vary from the Euro with 3-4”, NBM 6-7”, and to the GFS with 15-17”.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday will in the high single digits to high teens. Clouds will clear out Tuesday night and temps will be a bit colder with lows in the low single digits to mid-teens.
Winds… Tuesday winds will gust 25-35mph. Wednesday will peak in the 20-25mph range and decrease more on Thursday to 15-20mph.
Mark will take over tomorrow.