Spotty mountain snowflakes through Wednesday – Dry through Saturday…

We had fun with future scientists at Pagosa Valor Academy! – Pic taken 1/19/2023

We had fun with future scientists at Pagosa Valor Academy! – Pic taken 1/19/2023

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Monday – 23 Jan 2023 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 33. The low was 20 and it occurred at 10:15pm last night. The peak wind at the airfield this afternoon was 21mph out of the northeast.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3855 / 19811-28 / 1955

Precipitation summary… Light snow started falling across parts of the county in the early morning hours. The heaviest snow was pretty much done by sunrise.  Wolf Creek reported 2” this morning and might have squeezed out another inch or two during the day.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from zero to 1.3”.  Arleen was the snow lottery winter in O’Neal Park.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from zero to 1.3”.  Arleen was the snow lottery winner in O’Neal Park.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low is spinning between Phoenix and Tucson and will move southeast.  We are on the northern edge of the clouds with upper level northeast flow.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low is spinning between Phoenix and Tucson and will move southeast.  We are on the northern edge of the clouds with upper level northeast flow.
Radar this afternoon – Most of the precip is south of I-40 though our mountains are still getting light snow.
Radar this afternoon – Most of the precip is south of I-40 though our mountains are still getting light snow.

Rest of today… We’ll stay mostly cloudy and light snowshowers will linger over the mountains. Up to an inch of snow is possible in the mountains.

Tuesday and Wednesday… A couple of weak disturbances will move through the upper level northwesterly and northerly flow and could kick up a few mountain snowflakes. Lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch or two of snow and parts of the valley could get a dusting.

NBM forecast snowfall to Wednesday at 11pm shows a dusting for parts of the valley and 1-3” in our mountains.
NBM forecast snowfall to Wednesday at 11pm shows a dusting for parts of the valley and 1-3” in our mountains.

Thursday through Saturday… Ridging and drier air will give us lots of sun. Temps will warm to near average Friday and Saturday.

Sunday through?… The pattern will get more active. The forecast models are all over the place, so forecast confidence is low in the details. Right now it looks like we could have another extended period of snow, but amounts aren’t too impressive.

These are the 15-day ensemble snowfall forecasts for the three primary forecast models in order of my preference. The Euro has about 10”, the GFS has about 12”, while the Canadian is the most optimistic with 18”. Right now I don’t trust the models but lean towards the Euro.
These are the 15-day ensemble snowfall forecasts for the three primary forecast models in order of my preference. The Euro has about 10”, the GFS has about 12”, while the Canadian is the most optimistic with 18”. Right now I don’t trust the models but lean towards the Euro.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Huge thanks to the Pagosa Valor Academy for inviting us! We had a lot of fun with these future scientists!
Huge thanks to the Pagosa Valor Academy for inviting us! We had a lot of fun with these future scientists!

My next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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