Our next storm arrives tonight…

Sunny mountain

While we were dealing low clouds and flurries this morning in the valley, it was sunny at Wolf Creek Ski area! Photo courtesy of Wolf Creek Summit Cam.

Sunday – 22 Jan. 2023 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 25 and the low this morning was 14 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 75%. Winds at the airfield hit 7 mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…snow flurries appeared this morning from our temperature inversion…most of us reported zero to a trace, but Chromo actually had measurable snow of 0.01.

Screenshot 2023 01 22 082141
24-hr snowfall totals ranged from 0 to 0.01inches.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3857/ 19811-31/ 1955
Screenshot 2023 01 22 080910

Winter Weather Advisory-Does not include Pagosa Springs.

Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus 232 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. * WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Monday.

Winter Weather Advisory for Wolf Creek Pass:

Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- 333 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Monday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

Roof Avalanche Watch: This is not an official alert from the NWS, but watch out for roof avalanches as all of the snow we have had, settles and potentially slides off our roofs…especially for those of you who have metal roofs. Not only can sliding snow do a lot of damage, it can actually kill you!

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

Low clouds formed once again overnight due to an inversion as cold air settled in our valleys. While I was working on this post, it was sunny and 18 degrees at Wolf Creek and 11 degrees, with clouds and flurries at our place about a mile north of Hatcher Lake. The clouds should break by mid-day, then thicken up again as a low pressure to our west, starts impacting our weather. Our next low is located over northern Nevada this morning, moving south. Over the next couple of days, it will move SSE into southern AZ, then eastward into Mexico and Texas. We will be on the outer fringes of the moisture. Despite some sunshine starting on Tuesday, look for our temperatures to continue below normal this upcoming week, with lows in the 0’s to single digits and highs only in the upper 20’s and low 30’s.

The rest of today: Cloudy this morning, partly cloudy midday, then becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Lows tonight will be in the teens.

Tonight-Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers, winding up by the afternoon. Highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Lows in the single digits to low teens.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for light snow showers. Lows in the single digits and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s

Thursday-Friday: Mostly sunny with lows in the single digits and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Snowfall forecast for tonight through Monday afternoon:

Valley: 1-3”

Mountains: 4-9”

Screenshot 2023 01 22 085556
Our next low is located over northern Nevada this morning, moving south. Over the next couple of days, it will move SSE into southern AZ, then eastward into Mexico and Texas. We will be on the outer fringes of the moisture as it rotates around us.
StormTotalSnow 1
The NWS in Grand Junction is predicting 1-2 inches of snow for us from our next storm tonight through Monday afternoon.
Screenshot 2023 01 22 080311
The latest NWS snowfall model is predicting 2 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 6 inches for Wolf Creek Pass from our next storm.

Our 5-Day Forecast…

Pagosa 5 day 1 22 23 1
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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