Friday – 21 Oct 2022 – 2pm
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 67 and the low this morning was 29 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 16%. Winds at the airfield hit 16mph yesterday.
Precipitation summary… Once again, there was no precipitation to summarize from yesterday!
Enjoy the sunshine and relatively warm temperatures today and tomorrow as we see low to mid 60’s for highs. Our temps will drop back down to the upper 20’s and low 30’s tonight and winds will continue to increase out of the SW ahead of the big trough digging into the Pacific NW.
By Saturday, the trough digs into the Great Basin, increasing our surface winds to 15-25mph with gusts to 30mph by the afternoon. We will remain mostly sunny tomorrow but cloud up quickly after sunset as our SW flow starts bringing in moisture to the surface as well as the upper and mid-levels of the atmosphere. Rain and some thunderstorms will begin in the valley and snow and some thundersnow will start in the mountains after sunset on Saturday, ramping up on Sunday morning as the front and trough close in. While there could be some snow showers in the morning in the valley, the best odds for snow will be after noon on Sunday as the colder air arrives and snow levels drop to around 7000 feet. Highs will struggle to get out of the 30’s and with winds gusting to over 40mph there will indeed be a wind chill factor! Snow in the mountains will be blowing around with gusts approaching 50mph, so travel will be very challenging. I expect watches and or warnings to be issued for elevations above 9000 feet on Saturday for Saturday night through Monday morning.
My snow forecast totals have dropped slightly with new model data and a later arrival of the cold air on Sunday. The good news is that we should all see some decent liquid totals from this storm, with most of us getting around an inch.
I am forecasting 12-17 inches of snow for Wolf Creek ski area from Saturday night through Monday morning with the heaviest snow during the day on Sunday.
1-3 inches for elevations of 7500-8000 feet from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, with some snow showers during the day on Monday.
1/2-2 inches for elevations of 7000-7500 feet from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, with some snow showers during the day on Monday.
If you can plan “not” to travel over Wolf Creek pass on Saturday evening through Monday morning, I would certainly do so. There will be periods of white out with winds gusting to 40mph on Saturday night and 50mph on Sunday.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|60||77 / 1940||24||-5 / 1910|
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