New model runs and NOAA’s Winter Forecast

Lake Pagosa

I shot this a couple of days ago across Lake Pagosa…love our fall colors! © 2022-Mark Langford

Thursday – 20 Oct 2022 – 1:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 31. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 20%. Winds at the airfield hit 12mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary… Once again, there was no precipitation to summarize from yesterday!

Screenshot 2022 10 20 120551
NOAA has just released their winter outlook for this season. La Niña is back for a third consecutive winter!

U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer, drier South with ongoing La Nina | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov)

310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n

Forecast discussion…

Fine fall weather through Friday and most of Saturday. Morning lows will generally be in the 20’s and low 30’s while highs will be in the mid 60’s.

No major change in the storm scenario since my post yesterday, so let’s review!

We are still on track for a major change on Saturday as very strong trough will dig into the Pacific NW, sending down several short waves, a strong cold front and very good odds for precipitation. Look for rapidly changing weather starting on Saturday as our mid-level winds shift into the SW and moisture begins to flow into our area. As the front approaches for an early Sunday morning arrival, surface winds will increase to 10-20mph with some gusts over 25mph on Friday afternoon, then gusts possibly over 30mph for Saturday afternoon and 40mph on Sunday. While there is a chance for rain on Saturday afternoon, our best odds for snow and rain will be early Sunday through early Monday. It will be a wet, very windy and cold Sunday with the potential for 1-2 feet of snow in the mountains and even the chance for several inches of snow in the valley. I expect mainly rain on Sunday in the morning, changing over to snow by late in the afternoon as snow levels drop to around 7000 feet by Sunday night. The mountains will see snow starting late on Saturday through Monday morning, with a few snow showers lingering during the day. There will also be a chance for thunderstorms and thunder snow on Sunday!

Temperatures on Sunday will only reach the 40’s, then drop to the upper teens to low 20’s on Monday and Tuesday morning.

I am still forecasting 12-18 inches of snow for Wolf Creek ski area, 2-4 inches for elevations of 7500-8000 feet and 1-2 inches for 7000-7500 feetSnow will fall in the mountains from Saturday night through Monday and Pagosa Springs from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

If you can plan “not” to travel over Wolf Creek pass on Sunday and Sunday night, I would certainly do so. It would not surprise me to see weather watches and advisories issued for elevations above 9000 feet for Sunday and early Monday.

Screenshot 2022 10 20 124306 2
While our current mid-level atmosphere is dry under a NW flow, that will be changing to a SW flow starting on Saturday as we await the arrival of a huge trough which is slowly working its way into the Pacific NW as seen on this recent satellite imagery.
Screenshot 2022 10 20 122530
The latest NWS 3-day precipitation total through noon on Sunday. Since this event will run through Monday morning, these totals will be changing by tomorrow’s post.
Screenshot 2022 10 20 122439
The latest NWS 3-day snowfall total through noon on Sunday. Since this event will run through Monday morning, these totals will be changing by tomorrow’s post.
NBM 4
The latest NBM model is forecasting 0.93 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week.
NBM Snow 2
The latest NBM model is forecasting only 0.5 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and around 16 inches of snow for Wolf Creek from this weekend through Monday of next week.
EURO 3
The latest Euro model run is forecasting 0.73 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week.
EURO Snow 2
The latest Euro model run is forecasting 2.4 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and around 16 inches of snow for Wolf Creek from this weekend through Monday of next week.
GFS 4
The latest GFS model is forecasting 0.61 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week
GFS Snow 2
The latest GFS model is forecasting 2.6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 16 inches for Wolf Creek through Monday of next week

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 10 20 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6177 / 19912511 / 1976

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon