New model runs and NOAA’s Winter Forecast

I shot this a couple of days ago across Lake Pagosa…love our fall colors! © 2022-Mark Langford

Thursday – 20 Oct 2022 – 1:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 31. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 20%. Winds at the airfield hit 12mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary… Once again, there was no precipitation to summarize from yesterday!

U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer, drier South with ongoing La Nina | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov)

Forecast discussion…

Fine fall weather through Friday and most of Saturday. Morning lows will generally be in the 20’s and low 30’s while highs will be in the mid 60’s.

No major change in the storm scenario since my post yesterday, so let’s review!

We are still on track for a major change on Saturday as very strong trough will dig into the Pacific NW, sending down several short waves, a strong cold front and very good odds for precipitation. Look for rapidly changing weather starting on Saturday as our mid-level winds shift into the SW and moisture begins to flow into our area. As the front approaches for an early Sunday morning arrival, surface winds will increase to 10-20mph with some gusts over 25mph on Friday afternoon, then gusts possibly over 30mph for Saturday afternoon and 40mph on Sunday. While there is a chance for rain on Saturday afternoon, our best odds for snow and rain will be early Sunday through early Monday. It will be a wet, very windy and cold Sunday with the potential for 1-2 feet of snow in the mountains and even the chance for several inches of snow in the valley. I expect mainly rain on Sunday in the morning, changing over to snow by late in the afternoon as snow levels drop to around 7000 feet by Sunday night. The mountains will see snow starting late on Saturday through Monday morning, with a few snow showers lingering during the day. There will also be a chance for thunderstorms and thunder snow on Sunday!

Temperatures on Sunday will only reach the 40’s, then drop to the upper teens to low 20’s on Monday and Tuesday morning.

I am still forecasting 12-18 inches of snow for Wolf Creek ski area, 2-4 inches for elevations of 7500-8000 feet and 1-2 inches for 7000-7500 feet. Snow will fall in the mountains from Saturday night through Monday and Pagosa Springs from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

If you can plan “not” to travel over Wolf Creek pass on Sunday and Sunday night, I would certainly do so. It would not surprise me to see weather watches and advisories issued for elevations above 9000 feet for Sunday and early Monday.

My forecast…

Pagosa Springs historical data

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford