Apparently, the Monsoon is Hanging Out This Week!

Fall colors are just starting to pop in some areas! – pic taken 9/23/2022

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Sunday – 25 Sep 2022 – 7:00pm

Fall Colors

Average dates for peak fall colors

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 73 and the low this morning was 39. The cold spot was the upper Piedra at 29. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 24%. Winds at the airfield hit 12mph yesterday.

Precip summary… There hasn’t been any precip reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Ridging will remain in our area through the week. However, a couple of weak troughs are expected to skirt across northern Colorado.  Subtropical moisture will try to nose north into southwest Colorado. There will be just enough instability and moisture to kick up scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  It’s a monsoonish pattern for us.

Action will be slow the first part of the week and mostly over the mountains.  The second part of the week will be a little more active. I’m not expecting much precip – we’ll be playing the rain lottery.

Satellite Sep 25 15L 1
Satellite this afternoon. We can see moderate cumulus popping in our area, especially to the north.
Radar Sep 25 18L
Radar shows only a few isolated rainshowers to our north in Hinsdale County

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast Sep 25 22

Tonight: The cold spots could dip below freezing. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

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The NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects only .04″ for Pagosa. This will be convective so it could be more, it could be less
Euro 7 Day precip 25 Sep
Long range precip shows up to 1/2″ precip over the next week & up to 1″ in the mountains. First, a monsoon pattern during the workweek. Then the polar front jet & a frontal system dip south for the weekend.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7080 / 19893321 / 1945

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Arleen

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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