Decent shot for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow…

Big ole raindrops in golden evening sunlight - Pic taken 9/2/2022

Big ole raindrops in golden evening sunlight – Pic taken 9/2/2022

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Friday – 2 Sep 2022 – 8:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high today was 87 – 3 degrees short of the record of 90. The low this morning was 48, but the cold spots dipped into the upper 30s. Humidity this afternoon bottomed out at 15%. Winds at the airfield hit 25mph today.

Precip summary… For the previous 24-hours from this morning, most of us didn’t get any precip but the rain lottery winner was Lisa south of Echo Canyon Lake with 0.01”. Hey, it’s better than none!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from this morning range from 0.00” to 0.01”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from this morning range from 0.00” to 0.01”.

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high is parked over the UT/NV state line and will wobble around the area through Thursday. Clockwise flow around the high is out of the north-northeast in our region.  Like today, a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible around the periphery of the high (see the satellite loop below). Tomorrow there is a slight uptick in moisture and instability leading to the best chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next 5-6 days.

High temps will remain 5-10 degrees above average, and the drier air will lead to cooler morning temps lows.

Infrared satellite loop this evening: The upper level high is over the UT/NV state line resulting in north-northeast flow over us.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed along the periphery of the high including our area.
Infrared satellite loop this evening: The upper level high is over the UT/NV state line resulting in north-northeast flow over us.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed along the periphery of the high including our area.
Radar from 6:30pm: Showers and a couple of thunderstorms were moving towards the south-southwest across parts of Archuleta County.
Radar from 6:30pm: Showers and a couple of thunderstorms were moving towards the south-southwest across parts of Archuleta County.

My forecast…

The best chance for chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is tomorrow.  Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The best chance for chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is tomorrow. 
Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows nothing in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.06″ in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
Euro ensemble 7-day precip through 10 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.21” and our mountains getting up to 0.40”. The GFS ensemble says 0.32” and the NBM says 0.07”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 7-day precip through 10 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.21” and our mountains getting up to 0.40”. The GFS ensemble says 0.32” and the NBM says 0.07”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19504030 / 1944

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will do the next forecast on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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