More active today and tomorrow…

Evening storms lead to incredible Pagosa Country sunsets! – Pic taken 8/6/2022

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Sunday – 7 Aug 2022 – 9:20am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 81. The low this morning was 55. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 29%. Winds at the airfield hit 25mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Friday was a dud, but most of us got a few raindrops yesterday.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports for yesterday are all zero.*

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for today range from 0.01" to 0.21”. Amanda in the lower Navajo River valley was the rain lottery winner – again! — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for today range from 0.01″ to 0.21”. Amanda in the lower Navajo River valley was the rain lottery winner – again!*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. The high is currently to our south. The monsoon plume is narrowing, but it will be over us today and tomorrow.

Today and tomorrow, Cape, a measure instability, is well past the threshold for us to get showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water, the amount of water potentially available for precip, peaks a tad over an inch so there is plenty of moisture to work with.

Today storms will be slow moving and capable of dropping a bunch of rain in a short period over small areas. Tomorrow’s storms will be moving a little faster from the north-northeast towards the south-southwest.

Over the next few days, the high is expected to move north. By the middle of the week, northeast flow around the high will weaken the monsoon moisture plume and push it to our west resulting in fewer showers and thunderstorms.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

*Water vapor analysis this morning: The high is currently to our southwest and is expected to move north over the next few days. The monsoon plume is narrowing but will be over us today and tomorrow.*

At 8:30am there was nothing significant on radar in our region.

My forecast…

Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms is today and tomorrow and they could linger into the nights. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — ***Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms is today and tomorrow and they could linger into the nights.***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.5” of rain in town and up to 1.6” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 17 Aug at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.65” and our mountains getting up to 2.5”. The GFS ensemble says 1.69” and the Euro ensemble has 0.98”. The forecast model trend is for less precip. The Euro expects the monsoon plume to weaken and get pushed to our west for a few days. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably. — NBM 10-day precip through 17 Aug at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.65” and our mountains getting up to 2.5”. The GFS ensemble says 1.69” and the Euro ensemble has 0.98”. The forecast model trend is for less precip. The Euro expects the monsoon plume to weaken and get pushed to our west for a few days.
*This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	94 / 1981	45	32 / 1911

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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