Monsoon will be returning from her vacation earlier than expected!

Pagosa Peak peeks through a hilltop gazebo near our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake. Photo by Mark Langford

Saturday – 9 Jul 2022 – 8:30am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 85. The low this morning was 50. Downtown sensors hit the low 90’s! There was no precipitation recorded in our area yesterday.

Forecast discussion…

One more hot and dry day ahead, then thanks to an incoming trough in the Pacific NW and an easterly wave moving across southern NM and AZ, our monsoon vacation may be over by tomorrow! Moisture in the mid-levels and surface will be increasing on Sunday, along with the chances for afternoon thunderstorms. This trend will continue, with rain odds on the rise as we head towards the later-half of the week. High temps will be trending down after today, taking us back to upper 70’s and low 80’s instead of mid-upper 80’s and low 90’s as we see more clouds and evaporative cooling from nearby storms. Don’t forget that summer storms are convective in nature so there will be days that some of us get a good downpour and others that will be dry.

Shawn takes over tomorrow…have a great Saturday!

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 07 09 075655 — *Thanks to an incoming trough from the Pacific NW and an easterly wave moving across southern NM and AZ, our mid-level winds will be drawing in moisture from the SW again starting on Sunday.*

Screenshot 2022 07 09 073715 — *Precipitable water will be rising to almost an inch by tomorrow, indicating that moisture is moving back into our area!*

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 9 22 b — * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Screenshot 2022 07 09 073845 — *NWS 72-hour* precipitation totals are looking better! Don’t forget that summer storms are convective in nature so there will be days that some of us get a good downpour and others that will be dry.

Screenshot 2022 07 09 074016 — *The latest GFS ensemble model is forecasting over an inch of rain for us in the next 7 days.*

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 9th

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
84	96 / 1989	44	28 / 1912

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford

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One Response

Rich Muth says:

July 9, 2022 at 9:48 am

Mark: I was watching your webcam and I really liked it. I know you’re on earthcam but would you tell me the specific camera you have? I love the ability to zoom and pan.

Thanks!

Reply

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