Even monsoons need a vacation every now and then!

TC

A towering cumulus cloud drifts harmlessly across the horizon…such will be the case for most of our area over the next few days as drier air has moved in. Photo by Mark Langford

Thursday – 7 Jul 2022 – 2:45pm update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 80. The low this morning was 48. Once again, most of the showers and thunderstorms stayed east of Pagosa Springs.

Screenshot 2022 07 07 134831
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports ranged from 0 to 0.14, 4.7 miles E of town.
Screenshot 2022 07 07 135846
With our atmosphere drying out, most of the PM Poppers will be mountain huggers as seen on this radar imagery at 2pm.

Forecast discussion…

Unfortunately, “Stormy Monsoon” has decided to take a vacation for the next few days, leaving us to deal with the evil “Hell High”. The sub-tropical ridge is building over the west and is already starting to limit our afternoon odds for showers and thunderstorms to mainly the mountains, where there is more lift and a little more moisture. Look for only a tiny chance for showers and thunderstorms for the valley through the middle of next week with high temps ramping up to around 10 degrees above normal. Most of us will see highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s (depending on where you live) from Friday through at least Tuesday. Around the middle of next week, we could see a backward upside-down monsoon flow, as moisture wraps around the ridge and moves in from the north.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 07 07 141359
Drier air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere (yellow) has invaded our area! Look for only very scattered storms over the next five days. 
Screenshot 2022 07 07 135816
The heat is on! With the sub-tropical ridge (Hell High) over the SW, our temps will rise to around 10 degrees above normal over the weekend.
Screenshot 2022 07 07 141858
The long-range models continue to look positive for a return of our monsoon later next week.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 7 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Screenshot 2022 07 07 142331 1
NWS 72-hour precipitation totals are looking wimpy, wimpy!

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 6th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8499 / 19894427 / 1941

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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