Dry, warmer, and breezy afternoons…

The weather has been great for getting outside!… Pic taken 6/4/2022

Saturday – 4 Jun 2022 – 6:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high today was 78 and the low this morning was 38. Most of us stayed above freezing but a few cold spots were in the 28-30 degree range. Humidity this afternoon bottomed out at 12%. Winds at the airfield this afternoon peaked at 27mph.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Fire update…

There have been no significant changes for the Plumtaw or Perrins Peak fires. Unfortunately, a new fire popped up yesterday…

Bear Dance Fire near Ignacio

89 acres with 0% containment

Last update: 4 Jun at 7:30am

Forecast discussion…

The upper level flat or “dirty ridge” will stick us for the next 5-7 days. We’ll see more mid and upper level clouds and a few cumulus clouds will develop in the afternoons. This also puts us on the windier side of the ridge. Afternoon winds will continue to be gusty.

Satellite this afternoon: This is an excellent example of a “dirty ridge”. The ridge is nearly over our heads and lots of mid and high level clouds are moving west to east. There is almost no precip coming from any of those clouds.

My forecast…

*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

NBM precip through 15 Jun at noon: This blend of various models expects no precip for southwest Colorado and most of the desert southwest. Other models expect a little in our area. I see potential for a few spotty afternoon showers, but I don’t see any soakers anytime soon.

This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to 19 Jun at 6am –This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in Zulu. I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity. Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. This product has been handling daily peak wind gusts very well. Looking ahead, this model expects peak winds to stay in the 25-33mph range for the next two weeks.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
73	90 / 1946	34	18 / 1951

Announcements…

Contest… The Ski and Bow Rack is sponsoring a contest: “How Much Rain will Pagosa get during this year’s Monsoon?”. Win a $50 gift certificate! Get your guess in by tomorrow, 5 June 2022, at 11:59pm.

Leave your guess as a comment on the web page post OR the Facebook post.

A big thanks to the San Juan Outdoor Club for inviting us to speak about the monsoon!

*The Pagosa Weather team enjoyed talking about the Monsoon season and lightning safety with the San Juan Outdoor Club*

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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