A few more clouds, gradual warming trend, and breezy afternoons…

HUGE thanks to Jeff, Tom, and Scott from the Grand Junction NWS for the excellent collaboration and conversation!… Pic taken 6/1/2022

HUGE thanks to Jeff, Tom, and Scott from the Grand Junction NWS for the excellent collaboration and conversation!… Pic taken 6/1/2022

Thursday – 2 Jun 2022 – 12:40pm

Plumtaw Fire update…

Incident Type: Wildfire
Percent Contained: 91%
Size: 721 acres
More Fire Information: Via Inciweb
Last Updated: yesterday

Perins Peak Fire (Durango)

Incident Type: Wildfire
Percent Contained: 80%
Size: 106 acres
More Fire Information: Via Inciweb
Last Updated: yesterday

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 74 and the low this morning was 37. The cold spots continue to dip into the 25-30 range. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 9%. Winds at the airfield yesterday afternoon peaked at 25mph.

*** I might have jumped the gun for moving plants outside! Many of us were below freezing again this morning. With humidity bottoming out around 10% in the afternoons, we’re seeing 45 degree temperature swings between highs and lows – that’s impressive! I expect a gradual warming trend so when your low temp is above freezing, you should be safe.  To be extra safe, wait to see temps above freezing two mornings in a row. Plant at your own risk! ***

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

The upper level ridge axis will move over our heads later today – keep an eye out for the big blue jagged line in the sky. Ha ha. It will linger in our area for the next 5 days or so.  It’s a weak and fairly flat ridge. A couple of very weak troughs will try to move through it.  We refer to this as a “dirty ridge”.  We’ll see more mid and upper level clouds and a few cumulus clouds will develop in the afternoons. This also puts us on the windier side of the ridge.  Afternoon winds will continue to be gusty.

Satellite this morning: The upper level ridge will stay in our area for the next 5 days or so.  After it scoots to our east, we’ll see a few more clouds.
Satellite this morning: The upper level ridge will stay in our area for the next 5 days or so.  After it scoots to our east, we’ll see a few more clouds.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NBM precip through 13 Jun at 6am: This blend of various models expects no precip for southwest Colorado and most of the desert southwest. Other models expect a little in our area.  I see potential for spotty afternoon showers, but I don’t see any soakers anytime soon.
NBM precip through 13 Jun at 6am: This blend of various models expects no precip for southwest Colorado and most of the desert southwest. Other models expect a little in our area.  I see potential for spotty afternoon showers, but I don’t see any soakers anytime soon.
This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to 16 Jun at 6pm –This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. This product has been handling daily peak wind gusts very well. Looking ahead, this model expects peak winds to stay in the 25-36mph range for the next two weeks.
This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to 16 Jun at 6pm –This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. This product has been handling daily peak wind gusts very well. Looking ahead, this model expects peak winds to stay in the 25-36mph range for the next two weeks.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7383 / 19123320 / 1951

Make sure to check out Arleen’s Monsoon post. She spent hours digging into data. She did an excellent job explaining the monsoon and outlining her conclusions. What do we expect this summer?  Find the answer here: Will the 2022 Monsoon bring much needed relief to Pagosa Springs?

A presentation tonight!  We, mostly Arleen, will discuss the summer monsoon season at the San Juan Outdoor Club meeting on Thursday, 2 June, at 6:30pm at the PLPOA Clubhouse on Port Avenue. The meeting is open to everyone. The San Juan Outdoor Club is full of active folks doing good stuff for our community and our trails!

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Oh, no…I just put all my plants outside!!! I live on Aspenglow….hope they will be ok….waaaaa

    1. Michele, yikes! If your low temperature was above freezing this morning, you should be good. Good luck!

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