Smoky sunrise this morning… Pic taken 5/18/2022 at 6:05am
Wednesday – 18 May 2022 – 7:50am
17 May, 9pm Plumtaw Fire update…
As of 9pm last night, Tuesday, 17 May 2022, the Plumtaw Fire had burned 600 acres. It’s located 7 miles north of Pagosa Springs, 2 miles west of the intersections of Plumtaw and Fourmile Roads.
*** The two air sensors near town indicate “Unhealthy” and the sensor on Dutton Drive indicates “Unhealthy for sensitive groups”. *** Smoke will improve in town as winds pick up later this morning.
Multiple agencies are involved and aggressively fighting the fire. For updates follow “USDA Forest Service – San Juan National Forest” and “Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office” on Facebook.
A HUGE thanks to the San Juan National Forest crew and everybody else that is aggressively tackling the fire!


The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 79 and the low this morning was 39. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 9%. Winds yesterday afternoon peaked at 28mph at 5:55pm.
Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a RED FLAG WARNING valid 11am to 10pm Thursday. Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires. ***
*** The San Juan National Forest will enter Stage 1 Fire Restrictions on 25 May. ***
Today a weak trough will move through and could kick up an isolated shower or two over the mountains. As always with convective activity, winds will be erratic near showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday and Friday the next system will stay to our north but bump our winds to around 40mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for tomorrow and I expect another one issued for Friday. Friday afternoon will be marginally unstable so we could see a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains.
Saturday will still be unstable with another slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the trough lingers over northern Colorado.
The NBM model continues to show our area dry for the next 10 days while the Euro and GFS models expect us to get a little more active. Unfortunately I don’t see a good soaker anytime soon.


*** Not having a campfire or not taking care of your burn pile is an inconvenience. Burning down a neighborhood or a good chunk of forest would impact a lot of people. It’s not worth it! ***
My forecast…



Thursday and Friday winds will peak around 40mph and then they’ll taper off. The Euro expects winds in the 25-30mph range all the way through the end of the month.
Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
69 | 84 / 1956 | 30 | 18 / 1931 |
Mark your calendars…
Pagosa Weather is doing a presentation at the Ruby M. Sisson Memorial Library on Thursday, 26 May at 6pm. We’d love to meet you and answer questions!
Pagosa Weather is also setting up a “meet and greet” booth at the Ski & Bow Rack on Friday, 27 May from noon to 4pm. Come say hi!
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
I might do a quick update later today, otherwise I’ll get another post out tomorrow.
– Shawn