Wind and dry – RED FLAG WARNINGS today and tomorrow…

Marianne captured these amazing iridescent clouds yesterday morning over V Rock and the South San Juans… Pic taken 5/7/2022

Sunday – 8 May 2022 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 75 – congratulations Frank Snyder for winning the 75 degrees contest! He won a $25 gift certificate for some of the best burgers in Pagosa at THE SAGE. The low this morning was 41. The lowest relative humidity yesterday afternoon was 13%. The peak wind at the airfield on Friday was 28mph and on Saturday it was 37mph.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

An upper level low pressure system will slowly move down the California coast while a pesky ridge hangs tight over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. The moisture and precip will miss the southwest US but we’re stuck in the middle where winds will continue cranking.

The trough will finally move through on Thursday and bring us a few more clouds and cooler temps.

Unfortunately I don’t see any significant pattern change for at least the next 10 days. Precip looks minimal to non-existent, winds will be breezy most afternoons, and humidity will stay low.

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for critical fire conditions valid today from 11am to 10pm and again tomorrow from 11am to 10pm. ***

Satellite this morning: A low is spinning off the OR coast. The low is expected to be over the Great Salt Lake basin Wednesday night and the associated trough will move through Colorado on Thursday. Unfortunately the moisture and precip will stay right with the low and to the north.

*Fire and smoke map this morning: Southwest flow is keeping smoke from the NM fires well away from us. The fires in AZ are nearly fully contained and hardly putting out any smoke.*

My forecast…

*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

This is forecast precip through next Tuesday, 17 May, at 6pm for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro bottom left, and GFS bottom right. Observations… 1. It’s quite obvious where the storm track is – to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, expects the least precip. 3. All three models expect no precip in the valley. 4. Both the Euro and GFS expect up to 0.10” of precip in our mountains. 5. Unfortunately I agree with the NBM for us – I don’t see any precip for us over the next 10 days. — *This is forecast precip through next Tuesday, 17 May, at 6pm for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro bottom left, and GFS bottom right.*

Observations… 1. It’s quite obvious where the storm track is – to our north. 2. The NBM, a blend of various models, expects the least precip. 3. All three models expect no precip in the valley. 4. Both the Euro and GFS expect up to 0.10” of precip in our mountains. 5. Unfortunately I agree with the NBM for us – I don’t see any precip for us over the next 10 days.

Euro ensemble wind gusts to 22 May at 6pm – The top shows wind gusts for 50 different runs of the Euro model. The bottom shows the mean of those runs. The chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left. Times are in Zulu. I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity. Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. Starting Friday winds are expected to peak around 25mph each day which is more typical for this time of year.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
66	80 / 1989	28	13 / 1981

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be on Tuesday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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