Déjà vu

A Red Flag Warning is in place yet again, for this afternoon and early evening.

5-3-22 9am update…

The low today at Stevens Field has been 31 degrees and the high yesterday was 64 degrees. There has been no precipitation recorded in the past 24 hours. The highest wind gust was 25 mph yesterday, but we had a gust of 43mph on Sunday.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING… * WHAT…Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE…In Utah, Southeast Utah. In Colorado, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening. * IMPACTS…Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down.

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS. * WINDS…Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY…11 to 16 percent. * IMPACTS…Conditions will become favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and strong gusty winds.

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Shawn captured this animation loop of the dust storm moving into our area on Sunday. We should see similar conditions this afternoon.
Screenshot 2022 05 03 073359
An approaching upper-level low will drag a trough and cold front that will ramp up our winds this afternoon and give us a micro chance for some rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. As the low moves to the NE of us tomorrow, we will see another tiny chance for snow and rain showers on Wednesday. Most of the moisture from this system will stay to our north.

Just like Sunday, it’s hard to believe that by this afternoon we will be dealing with another round of winds gusting to over 40mph and intermittent blowing dust! An approaching upper-level low will drag a trough and cold front that will ramp up our winds again this afternoon and give us a micro chance for some rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. As the low moves to the NE of us tomorrow, we will see another tiny chance for snow (upper elevations and only in the morning) and rain showers on Wednesday from wrap-around moisture behind the upper-level low. As usual, most of the moisture from this system will stay to our north. Our mountains will see winds gusting to 60 mph tomorrow with a chance for up to a half inch of snow. The rest of the week looks mostly sunny with windy afternoons, but not like what we will see today. If you are looking for the least wind, Thursday and Friday will be the calmest with winds only gusting to the 20’s. Saturday we will see winds ramping up to the 30’s again. Temps will trend around normal for this time of the year.

Screenshot 2022 05 03 074015
Winds could gust over 40mph this afternoon. This is the latest HRRR model run.
Screenshot 2022 05 03 072639
NWS forecast rainfall totals over the next 3 days…pretty wimpy again!

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, call 877-841-0247.

Pagosa 5 day forecast 5 3 22

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for May 3rd.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6585/ 19472714/ 1951

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