Dry, breezy, and increasing fire danger…

Zion National Park, Utah… Pic taken 4/28/2022

Saturday – 30 Apr 2022 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 63. The low this morning was 25. A few cold spots dipped into the low to mid-teens this morning. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 37mph.

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

The next system will move through northern Colorado Sunday night. A spotty shower or two is possible in the mountains, but it will mostly be another wind maker for us.

Another system will move through the region on Wednesday. The track of the system is still in doubt. One model tracks it over our heads while another tracks it over Wyoming – that’s a big disparity with a variance of outcomes. Wash those cars and do those rain dances to coax it our way! Otherwise, gusty afternoon winds and humidity in the teens will lead to increasing fire danger.

30 Apr 2022 am satellite — Satellite this morning: It’s mostly clear over the Four Corners region. The ridge will move over our heads this afternoon and then southwest flow will start increasing behind it. The trough will stay to our north and just be another wind producer for us.

Satellite last night at 6:31pm of the smoke: The Arizona fires didn’t put out much smoke yesterday, but the New Mexico fires did. Flow is northwest to southeast which pushed the plume over the TX panhandle.

My forecast…

*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

This is forecast precip through Wednesday at midnight for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro bottom left, and GFS bottom right. Most obvious is that the 2 systems during this period will miss us to the north. The NBM and GFS expect a little precip in our mountains but none in the valley. The Euro is a little more optimistic. Hey northeast Colorado, share some of that rain with us! — *This is forecast precip through Wednesday at midnight for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro bottom left, and GFS bottom right.*

*Most obvious is that the 2 systems during this period will miss us to the north. The NBM and GFS expect a little precip in our mountains but none in the valley. The Euro is a little more optimistic.*

*Hey northeast Colorado, share some of that rain with us!*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
62	81 / 1981	26	13 / 1909

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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