Dry for a while – Windy tomorrow…

Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah… Pic taken 4/28/2022

Thursday – 28 Apr 2022 – 8:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 68. The low this morning was 30. The peak wind at the airfield this afternoon was 33mph.

Precip summary… Most reports were in the 0.01” to 0.04” range – just enough to briefly wet the ground. Scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms moved through the county mostly before noon yesterday. There were reports of rain, small hail, and ice pellets – very typical of our springtime storms.

Forecast discussion…

Tomorrow the next trough will miss us to the north but kick up our winds again.

Saturday through Wednesday two more systems will stay to our north and just produce winds for us.

Satellite this morning: It’s mostly clear over area. The patches of mid and upper level clouds over northern AZ and southern UT will move into our later today. — *Satellite this morning: It’s mostly clear over area. The patches of mid and upper level clouds over northern AZ and southern UT will move into our area later today.*

Fire and smoke map this morning: The smoke plume from the AZ fires is currently to our west. As southwest winds increase over AZ today and then us tomorrow, I expect the plume to move over southwest CO. Thankfully I don’t expect the smoke to be bad and it will be short-lived because the winds will shift to northwest behind Friday’s system.

My forecast…

*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

This is forecast precip through Wednesday at midnight for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro bottom left, and GFS bottom right. Most obvious is that the 3 systems during this period will miss us to the north. The NBM and GFS expect no precip for us and the Euro expects a little on Wednesday. Let’s hope for these models to be wrong and those systems shift farther south! — *This is forecast precip through Wednesday at midnight for the three primary forecast models that I look at every day: NBM top center, Euro bottom left, and GFS bottom right.*

Most obvious is that the 3 systems during this period will miss us to the north. The NBM and GFS expect no precip for us and the Euro expects a little on Wednesday. Let’s hope for these models to be wrong and for those systems to shift farther south!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
61	76 / 1992	26	14 / 1991

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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