Showers tonight – nice most of the weekend – more showers Sunday night & Monday…

Treasure Falls was magical yesterday morning!… Pic taken 3/30/2022

Treasure Falls was magical yesterday morning!… Pic taken 3/30/2022

Thursday – 31 Mar 2022 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 49. The low this morning was 24. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 29mph.

Precip summary… A dusting of new snow fell up at Wolf Creek in the last 24 hours. A few lucky spots in the valley got a little more precip yesterday.  The CoCoRaHS reports below are 3-day totals.

CoCoRaHS 3-day liquid equivalent precip reports range from 0.31” to 0.79”
CoCoRaHS 3-day liquid equivalent precip reports range from 0.31” to 0.79”
CoCoRaHS 3-day snowfall reports range from 0 to 7.2” *** It would be VERY helpful if all CoCoRaHS volunteers measures snow.  Please let us know if there is some way that we could help with snow measurements. ***
CoCoRaHS 3-day snowfall reports range from 0 to 7.2”

*** It would be VERY helpful if all CoCoRaHS volunteers measures snow.  Please let us know if there is some way that we could help with snow measurements. ***

Forecast discussion…

This afternoon scattered showers will start over the mountains and then become more widespread by midnight.  We’ll see on and off showers until the trough moves through Friday morning. The snow level will bounce around between 7,000ft and 8,500ft.

Saturday through Sunday morning ridging will build over the region and give us sunny skies and seasonal temps.

Sunday afternoon clouds will increase ahead of another weak system. A few spotty showers will pop up over the mountains in the afternoon and become more widespread after midnight. Occasional showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible until Monday afternoon when the trough moves through.

Satellite this morning: Mid and high clouds will increase through the day as the trough moves east. There isn’t much moisture with the trough. That ridge off the west coast will give us nice weather most of the weekend.
Satellite this morning: Mid and high clouds will increase through the day as the trough moves east. There isn’t much moisture with the trough. That ridge off the west coast will give us nice weather most of the weekend.
Radar this morning: There is a band of mostly weak showers associated with the trough.  The trough is moving east and move through our area tomorrow morning.
Radar this morning: There is a band of mostly weak showers associated with the trough.  The trough is moving east and move through our area tomorrow morning.

My forecast…

Tonight through tomorrow morning – The best chance for showers is midnight tonight to sunrise tomorrow.  Snowshowers will linger over the mountains until noon tomorrow. The snow level will bounce around between 7,000ft and 8,500ft. Sunday & Monday – Spotty showers will start over the mountains Sunday afternoon and become more widespread after midnight.  The best chance for precip is midnight Sunday to noon on Monday.  Showers will linger over the mountains until sunset on Monday. The snow level will start around 9,500ft and drop to 8,000ft by sunrise on Monday. * LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Tonight through tomorrow morning – The best chance for showers is midnight tonight to sunrise tomorrow.  Snowshowers will linger over the mountains until noon tomorrow. The snow level will bounce around between 7,000ft and 8,500ft.

Sunday & Monday – Spotty showers will start over the mountains Sunday afternoon and become more widespread after midnight.  The best chance for precip is midnight Sunday to noon on Monday.  Showers will linger over the mountains until sunset on Monday. The snow level will start around 9,500ft and drop to 8,000ft by sunrise on Monday.

* LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NWS snowfall through Friday at 6pm shows less than an inch for Pagosa Springs and 1-4” in our mountains.  Most of this will fall between midnight Thursday and sunrise Friday.
NWS snowfall through Friday at 6pm shows up to an inch for Pagosa Springs and 1-4” in our mountains.  Most of this will fall between midnight Thursday and sunrise Friday.
NWS 72-hour snowfall focused on our area shows up to an inch above 8,000ft in the valley, 3” at Wolf Creek, and up to 5” in the south San Juans.
NWS 72-hour snowfall focused on our area shows up to an inch in the valley, 3” at Wolf Creek, and up to 5” in the south San Juans.
HRRR forecast radar from 2pm this afternoon to 8am tomorrow morning shows a few spotty showers over the mountains this afternoon and then the main band of precip moving through between 1am and 6am.
HRRR forecast radar from 2pm this afternoon to 8am tomorrow morning shows a few spotty showers over the mountains this afternoon and then the main band of precip moving through between 1am and 6am.
The WPC 24-hour liquid equivalent precip valid Sunday at 6pm to Monday at 6pm shows 0.06” in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains. We’ll be lucky to get a half inch of snow in the valley and the mountains will be in the 2-3” range.
The WPC 24-hour liquid equivalent precip valid Sunday at 6pm to Monday at 6pm shows 0.06” in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains. We’ll be lucky to get a half inch of snow in the valley and the mountains will be in the 2-3” range.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5372 / 1966193 / 1931

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.  I also plan to do a March summary and April outlook tomorrow afternoon or sometime Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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