We’ll get some precip this week!…

Word of the day is “ephemeral” – this is our ephemeral stream, another sure sign of spring!… Pic taken 3/26/2022

Word of the day is “ephemeral” – this is our ephemeral stream, another sure sign of spring!… Pic taken 3/26/2022

Sunday – 26 Mar 2022 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 66. The low this morning was 30. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 24mph.

Precip summary… There was none in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

The ridge axis will move over our heads today – keep an eye out for the big blue jagged line in the sky! (See the satellite picture below.)

Behind the ridge axis, upper level southwest flow and moisture will gradually increase. Precip is likely Monday night and Tuesday as the first system moves through.  The snow level will start around 9,500ft and then lower to around 7,400ft by sunrise on Tuesday. A dusting of snow could stick on cold surfaces in town while folks above 7,500ft could get up to inch of snow.

Spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons mostly over the mountains.  The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.  All types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, and small hail.  If you don’t like the weather, just a wait a few minutes and it will change!

Showers will ramp up Thursday night and Friday as the second system moves through.  The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft again.

Satellite this morning: The ridge axis is nearly over our heads.  That’s all high clouds across the Four Corners region.  The thicker clouds over the Great Basin are just mid and upper level clouds – there’s no precip associated with those clouds.
Satellite this morning: The ridge axis is nearly over our heads.  That’s all high clouds across the Four Corners region.  The thicker clouds over the Great Basin are just mid and upper level clouds – there’s no precip associated with those clouds.

My forecast…

27 Mar 2022 am Pagosa 5 day forecast 1
Monday night and Tuesday – Precip will start around midnight Monday and fall into Tuesday evening.  An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. The snow level will start around 9,500ft and drop to 7,400ft by sunrise on Tuesday. Wet snow will have trouble sticking, especially on warm surfaces.

Wednesday and Thursday afternoons – Spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible, mainly over the mountains.  The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.  All types of precip are possible and snow is unlikely to stick in the valley.

Thursday night and Friday – There will be more showers.  Again the snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.

*LE = liquid equivalent.* *The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.*
The NWS 72-hour snowfall focused on our area shows less than an inch below 7,500ft, up to an inch above 7,500ft, and 6-10” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall focused on our area shows less than an inch below 7,500ft, up to an inch above 7,500ft, and 6-10” in our mountains.
The WPC 24-hour liquid equivalent precip valid Monday at midnight to Tuesday at midnight shows 0.43” in town and 0.60-1.0” in our mountains.  I expect a little less in the valley, but agree for the mountains.
The WPC 24-hour liquid equivalent precip valid Monday at midnight to Tuesday at midnight shows 0.43” in town and 0.60-1.0” in our mountains.  I expect a little less in the valley, but agree for the mountains.
The WPC 24-hour liquid equivalent precip valid Thursday at midnight to Friday at midnight shows 0.20” in town and 0.40-0.70” in our mountains.
The WPC 24-hour liquid equivalent precip valid Thursday at midnight to Friday at midnight shows 0.20” in town and 0.40-0.70” in our mountains. 

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5169 / 198818-8 / 1913

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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