A little snow tomorrow and more Wednesday night and Thursday…

A spot of sunshine on the mountains this morning… Pic taken 3/6/2022

A spot of sunshine on the mountains this morning… Pic taken 3/6/2022

Sunday – 6 Mar 2022 – 12:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 37. The low last night was 21.  The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 18mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours… Most reports this morning were in the 3-6” range.  Even our friends down in Ignacio and Arboles were at that the top of that range! Wolf Creek reported 10” in the last 24 hours.  It’s been snowing pretty good up there most of the morning, so their afternoon report will have more.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from 1.2” to 5.6”. We got lots of reports in the 4-6” range.  Heavier bands of snow hit the Durango, Bayfield, and Vallecito areas.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from 1.2” to 5.6”. We got lots of reports in the 4-6” range.  Heavier bands of snow hit the Durango, Bayfield, and Vallecito areas.

Forecast discussion…

The upper level low is spinning south of Farmington and moving slowly east.  When the low gets to our southeast around sunset, flow will switch to north and snowshowers will taper off.

A weak trough will move through late tomorrow evening, but it won’t have much moisture.  It will kick up scattered snowshowers from sunrise to sunset, especially over the mountains.

Ridging will dry us out and give us sunny skies on Tuesday.

Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon the next system will move through the area and bring another round of snow.

Water vapor satellite: The low is spinning just south of Farmington and moving slowly east. Ahead of the low, we’re getting upslope south to southwest flow and seeing bands of heavy snowshowers.
Water vapor satellite: The low is spinning just south of Farmington and moving slowly east. Ahead of the low, we’re getting upslope south to southwest flow and seeing bands of heavy snowshowers.
Radar at 11:30am: As usual it’s not showing much in our area.  Note that it’s snowing nearly the length of I-25 along the Front Range.
Radar at 11:30am: As usual it’s not showing much in our area.  Note that it’s snowing nearly the length of I-25 along the Front Range.

My forecast…

6 Mar 2022 am Pagosa 5 day graphic 2

NWS snowfall from 5am this morning to 5am Tuesday morning shows 2-3” in town and up to 12” at Wolf Creek.
NWS snowfall from 5am this morning to 5am Tuesday morning shows 2-3” in town and up to 12” at Wolf Creek.
Euro 24-hour snowfall from Wednesday at 5pm to Thursday at 5pm shows 3.1” in town and up to 8” in our mountains.  This lines up with my thoughts at this time.
Euro 24-hour snowfall from Wednesday at 5pm to Thursday at 5pm shows 3.1” in town and up to 8” in our mountains.  This lines up with my thoughts at this time.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4565 / 198612-12 / 1944

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Where do you get the -41 as a low temperature in February historically when I Google it says the lowest temperature ever recorded in Pagosa is -6.2 thanks for letting us know

    1. Hello Peggy! This is a great question and a good reminder that Google searches are sometimes questionable.

      The official data is archived by the Western Regional Climate Center – WRCC. Here’s the link to the daily data: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliRECt.pl?copago. And here’s the link to see the summary data: https://wrcc.dri.edu/csc/scenic/analysis/single/climatology/?area_type=station_id&station_id=PAGOSA%20SPRINGS%201SE,056258&start_date=1906-01-01&end_date=2020-12-06.

      I have noticed inconsistencies so the data isn’t perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got.

      Thanks again for the great question! – Shawn

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