Trust me…rain, possible thunderstorms and snow are really coming!

Brown snow

The layer of brown snow that fell a little over a week ago has been exposed again thanks to melting that has occurred over the past few days.

3-4-22. 1:30pm update…

4pm wind update: Winds are gusting to over 40mph in Durango and over 50mph at Wolf Creek Pass. As storms approach from the west, we could all see some gusts over 40mph this afternoon and evening.

The low this morning at Stevens Field was 27 degrees and the high so far today has been 48. There has been no precipitation recorded in our area as of this post.

Current Winter Storm Warning and Advisory Update:

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Current advisory and warnings. Pagosa Springs is not included as of this post.

For Wolf Creek Pass:

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 19 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 8 AM Friday to 5 PM MST Sunday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…A temporary lull in snowfall intensity is expected Saturday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For elevations above 9000 feet

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 4 at 10:48AM MST until March 6 at 5:00PM MST by NWS Grand Junction CO * WHAT…Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…Until 5 PM MST Sunday.

There were a few snow showers on the mountains this morning but most of us have only seen partly cloudy skies and no precipitation so far. As the day goes by, a closed low pressure will track this way from the west and open up into a trough. With abundant sunshine and temperatures warmer than forecast, I believe we do have a decent chance to see and hear some thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening as convection ramps up ahead of the low/trough. With the current snow level around 8000 feet, depending on your elevation, you could see rain or snow this afternoon or a combination! Later tonight colder air will arrive, and the snow levels will drop back to below 7000 feet through most of next week. Hot on the heels of our first low pressure that moves through tonight, will be a second one moving through on Saturday night. While our best odds for snow will be tonight through Monday morning, snow chances will continue through all of next week, with the best odds next Wednesday night and Thursday as another trough moves in. Temps will remain below normal all week.

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Our low pressure is currently hanging out in Las Vegas but should move far enough east this afternoon to produce a chance for thunderstorms, rain and then snow.
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Two lows are heading our way…the first one should arrive this evening and the second one on Saturday night.
StormTotalSnow GJT 1
Here is the latest Grand Junction NWS snowfall forecast from today through Monday morning.
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The latest NWS 3 day forecast model run is predicting 6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 11 inches for Chama and 24 inches for our mountains from today-Monday.
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The latest Euro model is now forecasting 9.5 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 16.1 inches for Chama through Tuesday.
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The latest NBM model is only forecasting 5.4 inches for Pagosa Springs and 9.1 inches for Chama through Tuesday.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, call 877-841-0247.

Pagosa 5day 3 4

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for March 4th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4363/ 198612-25/ 1966

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One Response

  1. Hey Mark, any advice / guess for me regarding best route home from Long Beach, CA to Pagosa, leaving Long Beach tomorrow a.m.?? Your report states SNOW on the way, On our way out two weeks ago when I-40 was shut down, we dropped straight down to I-10 just above the Mexico border and went across desert the entire trip. Will snow be a concern for us from Kingman to Flagstaff and then from Flag home?? Just seeking your thoughts to help us make our decision. THANKS in advance. Bruce

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