Here we go…

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2-1-22: 10:00am update…

Our weather warnings are still in place and have been updated. Below is a handy guide for understanding the difference between Watches, Warnings and Advisories.

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Pagosa Springs-WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * WHAT…Moderate to heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts in the foothills. * WHERE…San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From 5 PM Tuesday to midnight MST Wednesday night. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Wolf Creek Pass-WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 24 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE…The San Juan and La Garita Mountains, the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the Wet Mountains. The least amount of snow will occur over the La Garita mountains. * WHEN…From 2 PM this afternoon to midnight MST Wednesday night. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

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Current Winter Storm Warnings for our area. Pagosa Springs is the red dot on the graphic.

The low this morning at Stevens Field was 12 degrees and the high yesterday was 40 degrees. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.

Our trough is doing its thing, creating a SW flow aloft and increasing our moisture in the mid-levels.

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Moisture in the mid-levels is streaming into our area from the Pacific thanks to a trough developing to our west.

Ahead of the trough and cold front, we will see our atmosphere and surface moisten up and snow developing this afternoon. As I mentioned yesterday, there will be some very cold air with this system as a strong cold front moves through behind the trough on Wednesday afternoon. We may stay below freezing from Wednesday-Sunday with some lows below zero on Friday and Saturday mornings.

Looking at the latest model runs this morning, as usual there is still some debate about how much snow we will see. The Euro model is now forecasting only 4 inches of snow while the GFS continues to forecast a foot. The higher resolution models are forecasting totals somewhere in between.

This storm has the potential to produce higher snow ratios than our typical storms so instead of a 10-1 ratio, we could see 15-1 or 20-1 ratios. That means more snow, but less liquid equivalent…or a “drier snow”. The good news is that powder is not only more fun to ski on but it is much easier to snow blow off our driveways and snowplow off our roads.

While most of the snow will fall from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, we will see some “wrap-around” moisture after the trough passes, through midday on Thursday. Thursday will be our coldest day this week with highs struggling to get out of the teens and lows dipping to below zero for Friday morning.

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A surface map for Wednesday shows where the trough and cold front will converge, giving us a very good chance for snow during the day.
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The current Boulder NWS snow forecast through 5am on Thursday morning. They have boosted their snow totals for our area.
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The latest NWS forecast for snow totals through Thursday. Circled are Pagosa Springs, Wolf Creek and Chama, NM.
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The latest NBM model is forecasting less snow for Pagosa Springs from tonight through Thursday than it did 24 hours ago. Circled is Pagosa Springs and Chama.
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The latest GFS run continues to forecast around a foot of snow for our area through Thursday. Circled is Pagosa Springs and Chama, NM.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are currently experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try! Let us know what you think…

The rest of today: Cloudy skies with a high in the mid 30’s. Snow should start falling around 3pm and by sunset we could see 1/2-1 inch of snow on the ground. Winds will be out of the south 5-10mph.

Tonight: Cloudy with snow ramping up during the night. We could see 3-6 inches overnight in the valley and 6-10 inches for the mountains. Lows in the teens.

Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers most of the day. Snow for Wednesday will range from 3-5 inches in the valley to 8-12 inches for the mountains. Colder air moves in behind a cold front and trough during the afternoon, keeping our highs in the upper 20’s-low 30’s. Winds will be out of the SW 10-15mph. Snow should start winding down after sunset but we could see an additional 1-2 inches during the night.

Thursday: A few snow showers during the first half of the day with highs only in the 20’s and lows in the single digits.

Friday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 20’s and lows -5 to -10.

Saturday and Sunday: Sunny with highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and lows -5 to single digits.

Monday: Sunny with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s and lows in the single digits.

Snowfall totals from Tuesday-Thursday:

6-12 inches for the valley (could be higher if snow ratios go to 15-1 or 20-1)

15-25 inches for the mountains

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for February 1st.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4160/ 19452-46/ 1951

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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