2-1-22: 10:00am update…
Our weather warnings are still in place and have been updated. Below is a handy guide for understanding the difference between Watches, Warnings and Advisories.
Pagosa Springs-WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * WHAT…Moderate to heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts in the foothills. * WHERE…San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From 5 PM Tuesday to midnight MST Wednesday night. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
Wolf Creek Pass-WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 24 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE…The San Juan and La Garita Mountains, the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the Wet Mountains. The least amount of snow will occur over the La Garita mountains. * WHEN…From 2 PM this afternoon to midnight MST Wednesday night. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
The low this morning at Stevens Field was 12 degrees and the high yesterday was 40 degrees. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.
Our trough is doing its thing, creating a SW flow aloft and increasing our moisture in the mid-levels.
Ahead of the trough and cold front, we will see our atmosphere and surface moisten up and snow developing this afternoon. As I mentioned yesterday, there will be some very cold air with this system as a strong cold front moves through behind the trough on Wednesday afternoon. We may stay below freezing from Wednesday-Sunday with some lows below zero on Friday and Saturday mornings.
Looking at the latest model runs this morning, as usual there is still some debate about how much snow we will see. The Euro model is now forecasting only 4 inches of snow while the GFS continues to forecast a foot. The higher resolution models are forecasting totals somewhere in between.
This storm has the potential to produce higher snow ratios than our typical storms so instead of a 10-1 ratio, we could see 15-1 or 20-1 ratios. That means more snow, but less liquid equivalent…or a “drier snow”. The good news is that powder is not only more fun to ski on but it is much easier to snow blow off our driveways and snowplow off our roads.
While most of the snow will fall from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, we will see some “wrap-around” moisture after the trough passes, through midday on Thursday. Thursday will be our coldest day this week with highs struggling to get out of the teens and lows dipping to below zero for Friday morning.
My forecast…
For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are currently experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try! Let us know what you think…
The rest of today: Cloudy skies with a high in the mid 30’s. Snow should start falling around 3pm and by sunset we could see 1/2-1 inch of snow on the ground. Winds will be out of the south 5-10mph.
Tonight: Cloudy with snow ramping up during the night. We could see 3-6 inches overnight in the valley and 6-10 inches for the mountains. Lows in the teens.
Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers most of the day. Snow for Wednesday will range from 3-5 inches in the valley to 8-12 inches for the mountains. Colder air moves in behind a cold front and trough during the afternoon, keeping our highs in the upper 20’s-low 30’s. Winds will be out of the SW 10-15mph. Snow should start winding down after sunset but we could see an additional 1-2 inches during the night.
Thursday: A few snow showers during the first half of the day with highs only in the 20’s and lows in the single digits.
Friday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 20’s and lows -5 to -10.
Saturday and Sunday: Sunny with highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and lows -5 to single digits.
Monday: Sunny with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s and lows in the single digits.
Snowfall totals from Tuesday-Thursday:
6-12 inches for the valley (could be higher if snow ratios go to 15-1 or 20-1)
15-25 inches for the mountains
-Mark Langford
Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.
Pagosa Springs historical data for February 1st.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 41 | 60/ 1945 | 2 | -46/ 1951 |
