More snow for Christmas!…

First sunlight on Cimarrona... Pic taken 12/18/2021

First sunlight on Cimarrona… Pic taken 12/18/2021

Saturday – 18 Dec 2021 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 33 and the low this morning is missing. Most of us were in the -5 to 5 range and the cold spots got down to -10. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 9mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Through Wednesday afternoon… Upper level ridging will keep us dry with mostly clear skies.

Starting late Wednesday, 22 Dec through the rest of Christmas week and potentially through New Years, the weather pattern will get more active.  The upper level ridge will flatten and sink south which will allow a more west to east progression of systems. Colorado won’t be in the bullseye, but we could see an extended period of unsettled weather.

Water vapor satellite this morning: It’s clear in our area.  A few high cirrus clouds will spill into Colorado from the northwest. The ridge to our west will give us dry weather through Wednesday afternoon.
Water vapor satellite this morning: It’s clear in our area.  A few high cirrus clouds will spill into Colorado from the northwest. The ridge to our west will give us dry weather through Wednesday afternoon.

My forecast…

The rest of today through Wednesday afternoon… We’ll see lots of sun and patches of occasional high clouds. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 30s and lows will be -5 to 15. Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the lower to mid-40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

Wednesday night through Christmas… We’ll see more clouds and periods of snow. The snow level will bounce around between 7,500ft and 8,000ft. Highs will be in the 30s and lows will be in the upper teens to upper 20s.

First guess snow totals…

Valley: 5-10”

Mountains: 12-20”

The details are still sketchy.  We’ll adjust the timing, snow amounts, and snow level as the data gets better.

The NBM through Christmas at 11pm shows 7.1” for Pagosa Springs and 15-20” in our mountains.  This is a good average of the models and I like it at this time. The models vary considerably with snow amounts.  The Euro and Canadian models show around 20” for Pagosa.  This much variance leads to low forecast confidence in the amounts, but confidence is high that we’ll get snow!
The NBM through Christmas at 11pm shows 7.1” for Pagosa Springs and 15-20” in our mountains.  This is a good average of the models and I like it at this time. The models vary considerably with snow amounts.  The Euro and Canadian models show around 20” for Pagosa.  This much variance leads to low forecast confidence in the amounts, but confidence is high that we’ll get snow!

Christmas to New Years… Looks like more snow.  Do those snow dances!

The Euro ensemble 15 day snowfall for Pagosa and most of the forecast models continue to show an active pattern through New Years. This model shows 19” by 31 Dec.
The Euro ensemble 15 day snowfall for Pagosa and most of the forecast models continue to show an active pattern through New Years. This model shows 19” by 31 Dec.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3965 / 19064-26 / 1908

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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8 Responses

    1. Well, I’m grateful for the skills of others… I hope pagosa weather makes Mr. Pro weather man rich some day! Maybe I could be an anchor…
      Thanks for the service! Much appreciated

      1. Hello Jason – It’s definitely not our goal to get rich, but we are very grateful that the community is helping to cover our costs! Maybe we should audition you someday! Thanks so much for the support!

    2. Hello David. I can see how this is contradictory so I’ll explain.

      Our costs… Web page costs and weather subscriptions to sites like Weather Models, Pivotal Weather, and Weather Bell for in-depth forecast model data costs us a few thousand dollars each year. We’ve reached out to the community to help cover those costs. The community has responded wonderfully and our costs are covered! Not only are businesses helping us but hopefully we are helping them get more customers. It is important to us to help local businesses – they play a vital role in our small community.

      Our time… It takes us 2-3 hours to do each weather post. We also regularly check weather throughout the day, especially when it’s active. We ask for nothing for our time. We enjoy doing the forecasts and believe that it is helpful to the community.

      Weather presentations… We enjoy doing presentations for schools, businesses, and groups and ask for nothing in return.

      Yep, it’s a community service. We are humbled and grateful to have earned the community’s support!

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