Wolf Creek Pass looks slick this morning. Web cam capture 12/9/2021 at 6:55am
Thursday – 9 Dec 2021 – 7:15am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 35 and the low this morning was 32. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 6mph.
24-hour precip… Bands of snowshowers moved through much of yesterday afternoon but temps above freezing and the short duration bursts (indicative of showers) resulted in a trace to 1.5” of snow in the valley. Wolf Creek reported 6” of new snow this morning.
Forecast discussion…
The ingredients are lined up for good snow this evening into tomorrow morning: Strong jet stream overhead out of the southwest; tons of moisture; a strong cold front with the associated cold air advection; and strong storm energy.
Saturday through Monday will be dry as transient ridging builds back into the region.
Tuesday and Wednesday another low pressure system will move through. It looks promising.
My forecast…
This afternoon through Friday afternoon… Scattered snow showers will ramp up in the afternoon and then the heaviest snow will fall this evening to around sunrise tomorrow morning. Scattered snow showers will end in the valley by late morning tomorrow and will linger into the afternoon over the mountains. Snow levels this afternoon will pop up to around 7,500ft and will then drop after sunset. Visibility will be poor at times tonight with heavy snow and blowing snow.
Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s. Low temps tomorrow night will be -10 to 5. Winds will increase into the 20-25mph range this evening, then ramp up to the 30-35mph range in the middle of the night, and peak around 30mph on Friday. Winds in the high country will peak around 55mph Thursday night and Friday morning.
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Warning for the southwest San Juan Mountains for 1-2 feet of snow and 40mph winds valid 6am Thursday to 6pm Friday. *** I expect Wolf Creek to be in the top of that range and the winds up there will be 10-15mph stronger.
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for the San Juan River Basin, which includes Pagosa Springs, for 3-6” of snow and 35mph winds valid this evening to tomorrow morning. *** I expect this to either be upgraded to a warning or an advisory will be issued sometime today. I expect the town of Pagosa Springs to be at the top of this range.
*** The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has issued an AVALANCHE WATCH for our mountains. Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected from Thursday evening through Friday. ***
Snow amounts…
Valley below 7,500ft: 6-8”
Valley above 7,500ft: 8-12”
Mountains: 18-24”
I wouldn’t be surprised if Wolf Creek Pass gets closed for a brief period tonight or tomorrow morning.
Saturday through Monday… We’ll see lots of sun and below average temps. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s and lows that night will be -10 to 5. Highs Sunday will be a little warmer in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be -5 to 10. Monday temps will be a few degrees warmer.
Tuesday and Wednesday… There will be more clouds and more snow. This system will start on the warm side with the dreaded “r” word up to 8,500ft. Then the snow level will lower to 7,000ft Tuesday night. This will make snow amounts tricky to forecast.
First guess snow amounts…
Valley: 2-6”
Mountains above 9,000ft: 10-20”
I’ll tweak the timing and snow amounts as the data gets better.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 41 | 58 / 1981 | 8 | -18 / 1956 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
I might do a quick update this afternoon, otherwise my next post will be tomorrow morning. I look forward to your snow reports and pictures tomorrow morning!
– Shawn
One Response
Thank you for keeping us informed. Very helpful.