It’s coming!…

Wolf Creek Pass looks slick this morning. Web cam capture 12/9/2021 at 6:55am

Wolf Creek Pass looks slick this morning. Web cam capture 12/9/2021 at 6:55am

Thursday – 9 Dec 2021 – 7:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 35 and the low this morning was 32. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 6mph.

24-hour precip… Bands of snowshowers moved through much of yesterday afternoon but temps above freezing and the short duration bursts (indicative of showers) resulted in a trace to 1.5” of snow in the valley. Wolf Creek reported 6” of new snow this morning.

Forecast discussion…

The ingredients are lined up for good snow this evening into tomorrow morning: Strong jet stream overhead out of the southwest; tons of moisture; a strong cold front with the associated cold air advection; and strong storm energy.

Saturday through Monday will be dry as transient ridging builds back into the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday another low pressure system will move through.  It looks promising.

Water vapor satellite this morning:  The system is developing rapidly off the CA coast and will move over us this evening.
Water vapor satellite this morning:  The system is developing rapidly off the CA coast and will move over us this evening.
Radar this morning: Precip extends from the Salt Lake area back to CA.  Much of the “precip” along the I-70 corridor in CO is either very light or not making it to the ground.
Radar this morning: Precip extends from the Salt Lake area back to CA.  Much of the “precip” along the I-70 corridor in CO is either very light or not making it to the ground.

My forecast…

This afternoon through Friday afternoon… Scattered snow showers will ramp up in the afternoon and then the heaviest snow will fall this evening to around sunrise tomorrow morning.  Scattered snow showers will end in the valley by late morning tomorrow and will linger into the afternoon over the mountains. Snow levels this afternoon will pop up to around 7,500ft and will then drop after sunset. Visibility will be poor at times tonight with heavy snow and blowing snow.

Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s. Low temps tomorrow night will be -10 to 5. Winds will increase into the 20-25mph range this evening, then ramp up to the 30-35mph range in the middle of the night, and peak around 30mph on Friday.  Winds in the high country will peak around 55mph Thursday night and Friday morning.

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Warning for the southwest San Juan Mountains for 1-2 feet of snow and 40mph winds valid 6am Thursday to 6pm Friday. *** I expect Wolf Creek to be in the top of that range and the winds up there will be 10-15mph stronger.

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for the San Juan River Basin, which includes Pagosa Springs, for 3-6” of snow and 35mph winds valid this evening to tomorrow morning. *** I expect this to either be upgraded to a warning or an advisory will be issued sometime today. I expect the town of Pagosa Springs to be at the top of this range.

*** The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has issued an AVALANCHE WATCH for our mountains. Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected from Thursday evening through Friday. ***

Snow amounts…

Valley below 7,500ft: 6-8”

Valley above 7,500ft: 8-12”

Mountains: 18-24”

I wouldn’t be surprised if Wolf Creek Pass gets closed for a brief period tonight or tomorrow morning.

The NWS snowfall to Friday at 11pm shows 6-8” in Pagosa and up to 24” up at Wolf Creek.
The NWS snowfall to Friday at 11pm shows 6-8” in Pagosa and up to 24” up at Wolf Creek.

Saturday through Monday… We’ll see lots of sun and below average temps.  Highs Saturday will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s and lows that night will be -10 to 5. Highs Sunday will be a little warmer in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be -5 to 10. Monday temps will be a few degrees warmer.

Tuesday and Wednesday… There will be more clouds and more snow.  This system will start on the warm side with the dreaded “r” word up to 8,500ft.  Then the snow level will lower to 7,000ft Tuesday night.  This will make snow amounts tricky to forecast. 

First guess snow amounts…

Valley: 2-6”

Mountains above 9,000ft: 10-20”

I’ll tweak the timing and snow amounts as the data gets better.

The GFS 24-hour snowfall for Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening shows 2-6” over the valley and 19” at Wolf Creek.
The GFS 24-hour snowfall for Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening shows 2-6” over the valley and 19” at Wolf Creek.
The Euro 24-hour snowfall for Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening shows 2-4” over the valley and 13” at Wolf Creek
The Euro 24-hour snowfall for Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening shows 2-4” over the valley and 13” at Wolf Creek

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4158 / 19818-18 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

I might do a quick update this afternoon, otherwise my next post will be tomorrow morning.  I look forward to your snow reports and pictures tomorrow morning!

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

One Response

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon