Another glorious sunrise captured on the Wolf Creek summit cam. Web cam capture on 12/6/2021
Monday – 6 Dec 2021 – 11:50am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 50 and the low this morning was 20. The cold spots were near 10. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 8mph.
There was no precip in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
A system will move through Colorado tonight and tomorrow. Unfortunately there are 3 things working against us: 1. It’s a weak system and will continue to weaken as it moves through. 2. There won’t be much moisture when it moves through our area. 3. The northwest trajectory is not our friend. Our beautiful San Juan Mountains will keep the moisture and precip on the other side.
Wednesday is an in-between day. Clouds will be in and out and the spotty showers will persist especially later in the day over the mountains.
All eyes are on the second half of Thursday through Friday night. The ingredients are lining up for a decent snowstorm!
This weekend looks clear and cold as ridging builds back into the region.
My forecast…
This afternoon… We’ll have quite a few high clouds. Highs will range from the mid-40s to low-50s. Winds will stay under 20mph.
This evening through tomorrow afternoon… There will be more clouds and spotty snowshowers. The best chance for snow is roughly 10pm this evening to 10am tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will be in the upper teens to mid-20s and highs tomorrow afternoon will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s.
Snow amounts…
– Valley: a dusting to 1”
– Mountains: 1-3”
Tuesday night through Thursday morning… Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Expect spotty snowshowers to persist, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening over the mountains where an inch or two of snow is possible. High temps Wednesday afternoon will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the upper teens to mid-20s.
Thursday afternoon through Friday night… Do those snow dances! The heaviest snow is possible Thursday evening through Friday morning with scattered showers on either side of this time period. Snow levels Thursday afternoon will start around 7,500ft and will then drop after sunset.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid-30s to lower 40s. Low temps Friday night will be -5 to 10. Winds will peak around 20mph Thursday afternoon and then around 25mph Friday. Winds in the high country will peak around 50mph Thursday night and Friday.
Snow amounts…
Valley: 5-10”
Mountains: 12-20”
I’ll tweak the details as the data gets better.
For folks thinking about Wolf Creek… Friday will be a “storm day”, especially the first half of the day. Expect poor visibility, heavy snow, and strong winds. Saturday will be chilly but otherwise, pretty sweet.
Saturday and Sunday… We’ll see lots of sun and below average temps. Highs Saturday will be in the 30s and lows that night will be -10 to 5. Highs Sunday will be a little warmer in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be -5 to 10.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 42 | 69 / 1906 | 8 | -19 / 1953 |
For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!
With two systems moving through this week, I plan to do posts every day. My next one will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
3 Responses
Your weather notifications are greatly needed. Thank you so much !
Susan Kirkwood
Your weather forecasts are excellent. I enjoy following your website.
Thanks Russ!