A fun week ahead…

Dry Peak

A plethora of people have been hiking on Coyote Loop Trail today taking advantage of our above normal temperatures and no snow to impede their walk! This photo will look very different by next Saturday…

12-4-21: 1:30 pm update…

For those of you itching to ski some powder today, take a flight to Hawaii where there are blizzard warnings out all weekend for Mauna Loa! They have over a foot of snow in the forecast over the next two days.

At Stevens Field the high so far today has been 52 degrees as of this post time. The low this morning was 23 degrees. There has been zero precipitation over the past 24 hours.

No major changes in the models over the past 48 hours except that Storm #1 is looking a little wimpier in regard to moisture. I’m expecting Storm #1 to arrive Monday night and it should be gone by Tuesday afternoon. Storm #2 now looks like it will start impacting our weather as early as Thursday morning, then really ramping up on Thursday night and Friday, before exiting on Saturday. This storm has the potential to drop 5-10 inches of snow in the valley and 10-20 inches of snow for the mountains. It will also be bringing in the coldest air of the season…we could see lows drop to below zero on Sunday morning next week! Both storms will be the result of upper-level disturbances and troughs, something we have not seen much of this season so far as high pressure has ruled!

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through Sunday with clear skies and above normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 50’s and lows in the teens and 20’s. Monday will be slightly cooler as clouds move in during the afternoon…expect highs remaining in the upper 40’s.

Screenshot 2021 12 04 130507
Storm #1 is looking pretty wimpy but I still think we could see 1/2 inch to 2 inches of snow around Pagosa Springs and 2-5 inches for the mountains. This is the latest 66 hour snow forecast from the NWS.
Screenshot 2021 12 04 130630
The latest EURO model run is forecasting 25 inches of snow from storm #1 and #2 through Saturday for Wolf Creek and around a foot for Pagosa Springs!
Screenshot 2021 12 04 131225
The latest 6-10 day forecast has our area in the “Likely Above” odds for precipitation…A new one for us this season!

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are currently experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try! Let us know what you think…

The rest of today: Sunny with highs in the low to mid 50’s. Winds will out of the SW 5-10 mph with a few gusts approaching 20 mph.

Sunday-Monday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and 20’s and highs in low to mid 50’s, cooling down to the upper 40’s on Monday with more clouds moving in during the afternoon. Winds will generally be out of the SW 5-10 with a few gusts approaching 20 mph.

Monday evening-Wednesday morning of next week: Storm # 1 moves in Monday night and will primarily impact our area Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. As of this post I’m forecasting 1/2-2 inches of snow for the valley and 2-4 inches for the mountains. Lows will drop into the teens and highs will be in the low to mid 40’s.

Wednesday-Friday: Mostly sunny on Wednesday with highs in the mid 40’s. Turning cloudy overnight on Wednesday with a chance for snow showers on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 30’s and lows in the 20’s. By Thursday night snow will be increasing and there is a good chance for some heavy snow showers on Thursday night and Friday with highs only in the mid to upper 20s. By Saturday, I am predicting a total of 5-10 inches of snow for the valley and 10-20 inches of snow for the mountains.

Shawn takes over on Sunday…have a great weekend!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 8th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4464/ 190610-19/ 1952

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