Happy Thanksgiving!…

The snow was pretty good yesterday at Wolf Creek! Pic taken 11/24/2021

Thursday – 25 Nov 2021 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 41 and the low this morning was 17. Most of us were in the 10 to 20 degree range. The coldest I saw was 8 in The Reserve. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 7mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours… A few spotty snowflakes fell in the valley and Wolf Creek got another inch for a storm total of 5”.

*Weather Underground temps this morning*

Forecast discussion…

The pesky ridge has popped right back into its favorite position along the West Coast. Drier northwest flow will give us pleasant weather for the next 7-10 days.

GeoColor satellite this morning: Other than clouds over the southern half of NM, most of the southwest US is clear. The pesky ridge has popped right back into place and will stay there for the next 7-10 days.

My forecast…

Thanksgiving through Wednesday… We’ll see quite a bit of sun with occasional periods of mid and high clouds. I don’t expect any precip for the next 7-10 days.

On Thanksgiving highs will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be mostly in the lower teens to lower 20s. For the rest of the period highs will be in the lower to upper 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. ** We’ll flirt with the record highs of 58 on Monday and Tuesday. **

Winds will stay under 20mph.

Euro ensemble 500mb 5-day anomaly valid 29 November to 4 December: Yellow and orange colors indicate stable/boring weather. Blue colors indicate unsettled/fun weather. The red arrows roughly outline the storm track. The big frown face sums it up. — Euro ensemble 500mb 5-day anomaly valid 29 November to 4 December: Yellow and orange colors indicate stable/boring weather. Blue colors indicate unsettled/fun weather. The red arrows roughly outline the storm track.

*The big frown face sums it up.*

Euro ensemble 500mb 5-day anomaly valid 4-9 December: Yellow and orange colors indicate stable/boring weather. Blue and green colors indicate unsettled/fun weather. The ridge has weakened a bit and the trough off the coast, indicated by the ?, is a little farther east and south. Towards the end of this 5-day period the ridge is expected to weaken a little more and allow the pattern to get more active. — *Euro ensemble 500mb 5-day anomaly valid 4-9 December: Yellow and orange colors indicate stable/boring weather. Blue and green colors indicate unsettled/fun weather.*

The ridge has weakened a bit and the trough off the coast, indicated by the ?, is a little farther east and south. Towards the end of this 5-day period the ridge is expected to weaken a little more and allow the pattern to get more active.

Euro ensemble 15-day precip for Pagosa: There is no precip expected through 5 Dec and then a more active pattern starting around the 6th. — *Euro ensemble 15-day precip for Pagosa: There is no precip expected through 5 Dec and then a more active pattern starting around the 6^th.*

Summary: Unless a surprise storm pops up, I expect above average temps and below average precip through the first week of December.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
46	62 / 1981	13	-13 / 1931

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!

We are very grateful for all our Pagosa Weather followers – thanks!

Mark will take over tomorrow – gobble gobble!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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2 Responses

Stephen Trammel says:

November 25, 2021 at 10:37 am

Happy Thanksgiving weather folks. We’re very thankful for you and want to meet up some day. We live in Twin Creek near Piedra and Mission. Have a wonderful day with family and friends.

Reply
1. Shawn says:
  
  November 25, 2021 at 2:41 pm
  
  Thanks so much Stephen!
  
  Reply

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