Looking down the road…

11-4-21: 3:30 pm update…

Since there isn’t much to talk about in the short term, let’s look down the road towards the middle of the month. As of today, the latest long range forecast is for more of the same. A cold front moving through on Tuesday night of next week could bring us some light snow, but other than that, we are looking at temperatures running slightly above normal and chances of precipitation running below normal through the 18th. Of course weather tends to have a mind of its own, so just because the models are looking dry today does not mean we couldn’t see a shift to wetter and colder by tomorrows runs.

My next update will be on Saturday…enjoy this weather!

Screenshot 2021 11 04 144212 — Here is the latest 8-14 day precipitation graphic from the Climate Prediction Center as of this afternoon. We are in the “Leaning Below” precipitation probability zone.

Screenshot 2021 11 04 144131 — Here is the latest 8-14 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for temperatures. With a trough in the eastern parts of the country that leaves us in mostly high pressure with above normal temperatures.

Screenshot 2021 11 04 144732 — Here is the latest drought update issued today. Not much change from last week…Pagosa Springs is in the “Abnormally Dry” zone but the county ranges from “Abnormally Dry-Extreme Drought” depending on where you live. As Shawn likes to remind us, we probably won’t see much change until next spring when we know how much snow fell over the winter.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are currently experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try! Let us know what you think…

The rest of today…Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50’s. Winds will be out of the SW 10-15mph mph.

Friday-Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 60’s and lows in the 20’s. Winds will be SW 10-15 mph.

Wednesday-Thursday: Our next cold front arrives Tuesday night with a slight chance for some snow with clearing on Wednesday and temperatures cooling to upper teens and 20’s and highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 3rd.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
55	72 / 1915	20	-6 / 1991

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Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford

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