A 12 hour precipitation window…

Mesa Arch

Mesa Arch. Another one of my vacation photos from last week from Canyonlands National Park. This is a great time of the year to visit Arches, Bryce, Zion and Canyonlands…

11-1-21: 1:30 pm update…

A shout out to Shawn’s October summery from this morning! If you haven’t read it, please check it out.

An inbound shortwave will be moving into our area tomorrow morning giving us a chance for some slight rain and some possible snow showers from 5am-5pm. As is usually the case around here, the higher in elevation you are, the better chance you will have to see some showers. Since this storm system will be moving through during the day, don’t worry about any road issues in Pagosa Springs but drive carefully if you are heading over Wolf Creek Pass. There are no watches or warnings out for Wolf Creek Pass and I would be surprised to see more than 1-2 inches of snow out of this storm, but even a couple of inches of snow can make driving tricky if temps are below freezing.

Once this system moves through we are back to ditto weather the rest of the week with a NW flow aloft. Precipitation will be hugging California and the Pacific NW this week…a very typical La Niña setup. For all of you hunters waiting on a big snow event to drive the elk out of the mountains, you may have to be patient…it could be the last half of November before we see a big storm around here.

Screenshot 2021 11 01 125151
A trough along the west coast will send a disturbance our way on Tuesday, giving us a 12 hour chance (from 5am-5pm) for some light showers and a few floating flakes in the valley.
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The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast is forecasting a tiny amount of precipitation for us!
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The latest EURO Model snowfall forecast is the most bullish I have seen for our snow chances on Tuesday. Most of the models are forecasting up to an inch for the mountains but this one is forecasting 2-4 inches. All of you skiers need to do a snow dance this evening!

My forecast…

The rest of today…Partly cloudy this afternoon, turning mostly cloudy by sunset. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s with SW winds in the 5-15mph range.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for light rain and some snow showers. Lows will be in the 20’s and highs in the low 50’s. If you get more than 0.05 of precipitation consider yourself lucky! Our mountains could pick up 1/2-2 inches of snow. Winds will turn out of the SW 10-15mph with gusts to over 20mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday-Sunday: Partly cloudy through this period with highs in the 50’s and lows in the 20’s.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 1st.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5570 / 1915218 / 1979

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