Nice through the weekend – unsettled next week…

Purple morning sky over Graham Peak – Pic taken 10/29/2021

Purple morning sky over Graham Peak – Pic taken 10/29/2021

Friday – 29 Oct 2021 – 9:05am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 58 and the low this morning was 27.  The peak wind in the last 24 hours was 8mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Ridging will keep our weather nice through the weekend with lots of sun and seasonal temps.

Then the weather pattern becomes more active, but weak. A couple of systems will try to move through the ridge and fall apart as they near us.  It will be unsettled with more clouds and occasional periods of light precip, but I don’t expect much.

Things are more in doubt by Thursday and Friday.  Some forecast models show a decent storm while others show almost nothing.

GeoColor satellite this morning: Most of the southwest US is clear of clouds.  Zoom in and look closely to see the lights of Pagosa Springs.
GeoColor satellite this morning: Most of the southwest US is clear of clouds.  Zoom in and look closely to see the lights of Pagosa Springs.

My forecast…

Today through Sunday… Expect lots of sun.  Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the lower 20s to mid-30s.  Winds will stay under 20mph today and tomorrow and then peak in the 20-25mph range Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday… There will be more clouds and periods with spotty showers, mostly over the mountains.

The mountains will get 1-2” of snow by Wednesday night. We’ll be lucky to get a dusting in the valley.

Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s.

On the left is NBM snowfall through Wednesday at midnight and on the right it’s through Saturday at midnight. In our mountains 1-2” is expected through Wednesday and then up to 4” through Saturday.  Up to 12” is expected in the northern mountains.
On the left is NBM snowfall through Wednesday at midnight and on the right it’s through Saturday at midnight. In our mountains 1-2” is expected through Wednesday and then up to 4” through Saturday.  Up to 12” is expected in the northern mountains.
29 Oct 2021 am Euro snowfall
On the left is Euro snowfall through Wednesday at midnight and on the right it’s through Saturday at midnight. In our mountains 1-2” is expected through Wednesday and then up to 12” through Saturday.  Up to 36” is expected in the northern mountains.

At this point I think the Euro is over-forecasting snow amounts and I favor the NBM.  Let’s hope I’m wrong and the Euro is right!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5675 / 1915226 / 1955

I’ll keep an eye on the weather and do a post if something pops up, otherwise Mark will take over on Sunday.

Keep an ear out for a word from Pagosa Weather on KWUF!

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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