Unsettled through this evening – the mountains will look beautiful tomorrow morning!…

Clouds cleared just enough yesterday afternoon to reveal snow covered mountains! Pic taken 9/30/2021

Clouds cleared just enough yesterday afternoon to reveal snow covered mountains! Pic taken 9/30/2021

Friday – 1 Oct 2021 – 10:10am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 58 and it occurred at noon.  Shortly after 2pm the temp had dropped into the mid-40s and stayed there the rest of the day.  The low this morning was 43. The peak wind at the airfield was 20mph. 

It snowed on Wolf Creek Pass but didn’t stick.  The lowest temperature at road level was 33.4, but it bounced back and forth between 34 and 35 most of the night.  The Wolf Creek Ski cam at the base this morning showed snow sticking roughly halfway up – about 11,000ft.

CoCoRaHS 24 hour precip reports vary from 0.28” to 0.78” across Archuleta County.
CoCoRaHS 24 hour precip reports vary from 0.28” to 0.78” across Archuleta County.
NWS mesonet 24 hour precip in Archuleta County varied from 0.04”(?) to 1.10”. The other totals near that 0.04” report are much higher so I think it’s an erroneous report.
NWS mesonet 24 hour precip in Archuleta County varied from 0.04”(?) to 1.10”. The other totals near that 0.04” report are much higher so I think it’s an erroneous report.

The low is spinning south of Farmington and will move into southeastern CO this evening. Initially we’ll have upper level easterly flow and then will switch to northerly. There is still a bunch of moisture but the upper level flow is more conducive to spotty showers than a widespread soaking.  Precip will be done by midnight as the low moves into western KS.

Saturday through most of Tuesday weak ridging will build over the area, but residual moisture and instability will kick up isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Late Tuesday and Wednesday the next system will move through the region.  The details are still in doubt, so I’ll tackle it in tomorrow’s post.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The low is spinning south of Farmington and will move across northern NM today.  Bands of moisture will continue to move through until that low gets over southeast CO this evening.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The low is spinning south of Farmington and will move across northern NM today.  Bands of moisture will continue to move through until that low gets over southeast CO this evening.
Radar this morning: Showers are moving counterclockwise around the low. Showers will continue to be spotty today but will get more active as the low moves closer and the atmosphere gets a little more unstable.
Radar this morning: Showers are moving counterclockwise around the low. Showers will continue to be spotty today but will get more active as the low moves closer and the atmosphere gets a little more unstable.

My forecast…

Today… We’ll see variable clouds with spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.  Precip will be done by midnight and clouds will clear out overnight. Patchy morning fog is likely.

The snow level is currently between 10,500ft and 11,000ft and will drop to 10,000ft this evening.   As the snow level drops this evening, precip will be ending.

Additional snow before midnight:

10,000ft to 11,000ft: 1-3”

Above 11,000ft: 3-6”

** Wolf Creek Pass could be slick tonight and tomorrow morning. **

Winds will peak around 20mph, though convective gusts to 30mph near showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Highs will be 50 to 60 and lows will be around 30 to the low 40s.

NWS 72hr precip shows 0.14” in town and up to 0.50” in our mountains.
NWS 72hr precip shows 0.14” in town and up to 0.50” in our mountains.
High resolution WRF snowfall between midnight last night to midnight tonight shows up to 8” in our mountains and 1-3” along Wolf Creek Pass.  Some of this precip has already fallen which I accounted for in the snow totals above.
High resolution WRF snowfall between midnight last night to midnight tonight shows up to 8” in our mountains and 1-3” along Wolf Creek Pass.  Some of this precip has already fallen which I accounted for in the snow totals above.

Saturday through most of Tuesday… There will be spotty afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains, but we’ll see lots of sun and pleasant fall temps. Highs will be in the lower to upper 60s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Get out tomorrow morning to see fall colors back-dropped by snow-covered peaks!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6982 / 19803220 / 1965

In tomorrow’s post I’ll include precip totals for the week. Arleen plans to declare a winner for the monsoon season precip contest, and she hopes to announce the next contest. On Tuesday we’ll be discussing weather with Pagosa’s smart high school science students – we’re excited about that! Plus Arleen will be doing a winter outlook in the next week or two.  Busy busy busy here at Pagosa Weather!

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon