Clouds cleared just enough yesterday afternoon to reveal snow covered mountains! Pic taken 9/30/2021
Friday – 1 Oct 2021 – 10:10am
Overall situation…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 58 and it occurred at noon. Shortly after 2pm the temp had dropped into the mid-40s and stayed there the rest of the day. The low this morning was 43. The peak wind at the airfield was 20mph.
It snowed on Wolf Creek Pass but didn’t stick. The lowest temperature at road level was 33.4, but it bounced back and forth between 34 and 35 most of the night. The Wolf Creek Ski cam at the base this morning showed snow sticking roughly halfway up – about 11,000ft.
The low is spinning south of Farmington and will move into southeastern CO this evening. Initially we’ll have upper level easterly flow and then will switch to northerly. There is still a bunch of moisture but the upper level flow is more conducive to spotty showers than a widespread soaking. Precip will be done by midnight as the low moves into western KS.
Saturday through most of Tuesday weak ridging will build over the area, but residual moisture and instability will kick up isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.
Late Tuesday and Wednesday the next system will move through the region. The details are still in doubt, so I’ll tackle it in tomorrow’s post.
My forecast…
Today… We’ll see variable clouds with spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two. Precip will be done by midnight and clouds will clear out overnight. Patchy morning fog is likely.
The snow level is currently between 10,500ft and 11,000ft and will drop to 10,000ft this evening. As the snow level drops this evening, precip will be ending.
Additional snow before midnight:
10,000ft to 11,000ft: 1-3”
Above 11,000ft: 3-6”
** Wolf Creek Pass could be slick tonight and tomorrow morning. **
Winds will peak around 20mph, though convective gusts to 30mph near showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Highs will be 50 to 60 and lows will be around 30 to the low 40s.
Saturday through most of Tuesday… There will be spotty afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains, but we’ll see lots of sun and pleasant fall temps. Highs will be in the lower to upper 60s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Get out tomorrow morning to see fall colors back-dropped by snow-covered peaks!
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 69 | 82 / 1980 | 32 | 20 / 1965 |
In tomorrow’s post I’ll include precip totals for the week. Arleen plans to declare a winner for the monsoon season precip contest, and she hopes to announce the next contest. On Tuesday we’ll be discussing weather with Pagosa’s smart high school science students – we’re excited about that! Plus Arleen will be doing a winter outlook in the next week or two. Busy busy busy here at Pagosa Weather!
– Shawn
