The great weather will continue…

The smoke isn’t bad when there are views like this in the high country.  Pic taken 9/10/2021

The smoke isn’t bad when there are views like this in the high country.  Pic taken 9/10/2021

Saturday – 11 Sep 2021 – 10:10am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 87 and the low this morning was 46. Little Siberia, Mark’s house, had a low of 37… brrrr. The peak wind at the airfield was 20mph.  There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Temps are still flirting with record highs.  The record high yesterday, 10 Sep, is 88 set in 1945.  The airfield hit 87 yesterday – oh so close.

The upper level high is currently centered over northeast NM. Upper level southwest flow will bring us a little more moisture and slightly more unstable flow through Tuesday. There is a very slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the mountains, especially Tuesday when a weak trough moves through.  The atmosphere will dry out and stabilize the rest of the week.

GeoColor satellite this morning: The high is centered over northeast NM. Smoke continues to be pushed clockwise around the high pressure center. The clouds over AZ are part of the weak moisture plume that will move into our area the next few days.
GeoColor satellite this morning: The high is centered over northeast NM. Smoke continues to be pushed clockwise around the high pressure center. The clouds over AZ are part of the weak moisture plume that will move into our area the next few days.
The smoke map this morning continues to show us on the fringes with the worst smoke circulating around us.  Smoke forecast products continue to indicate that the smoke will gradually improve the next few days.  I added the arrows to show how the smoke plumes are moving.
The smoke map this morning continues to show us on the fringes with the worst smoke circulating around us.  Smoke forecast products continue to indicate that the smoke will gradually improve the next few days.  I added the arrows to show how the smoke plumes are moving.

My forecast…

Saturday through Tuesday… I expect us to be dry in the valley, but there’s a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the mountains. Temps will still be warm with highs around 80 to the upper 80s.  Lows will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

The NWS 72-hour precip show none for Archuleta County and less than 0.10” on the other side of The Divide.
The NWS 72-hour precip shows none for Archuleta County and less than 0.10” on the other side of The Divide.

Wednesday through Friday… Lots of sun, dry, and pleasant temps.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to upper 40s. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph.

Euro precip through Friday at midnight has no precip in the valley and up to 0.20” in the mountains. Other models show zero precip in our area during this period.
Euro precip through Friday at midnight has no precip in the valley and up to 0.20” in the mountains. Other models show zero precip in our area during this period.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7586 / 19563924 / 1950

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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