Pagosa Weather August temp & precip summary / drought update / river flow / September outlook

First snow last fall

Thursday – 2 Sep 2021 – 4:30pm

August 2021 summary…

The average low for August is 45 and the average high is 80. August precip averages 2.69″ – our wettest month.

How did we do? Check out these charts…

August average temps were within a degree of average
August average temps were within a degree of average
August precip was well below average. The western part of the county was in the 50-70% range and the eastern part was in the 25-50% range.
August precip was well below average. The western part of the county was in the 50-70% range and the eastern part was in the 25-50% range.
August Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE). This product estimates precip from various sources. It is not perfect, but it’s a decent source in data sparse areas like ours.
August Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE). This product estimates precip from various sources. It is not perfect, but it’s a decent source in data sparse areas like ours.
CoCoRaHS August precip reports vary from 0.39″ to 1.70″ - well below the average of 2.69"
CoCoRaHS August precip reports vary from 0.39″ to 1.70″ – well below the average of 2.69″
NWS mesonet precip totals for August range from 0.31" to 2.13"
NWS mesonet precip totals for August range from 0.31″ to 2.13″

Drought update…

The West Slope is still hurting.   Drought conditions across Archuleta County range from "none" in the northeast corner to "exceptional" in the southwest corner.  Reminder: Winter snow has far more impact on our drought conditions than summer rain.
The West Slope is still hurting. Drought conditions across Archuleta County range from “none” in the northeast corner to “exceptional” in the southwest corner. Reminder: Winter snow has far more impact on our drought conditions than summer rain.

River Flow…

San Juan River flow has been below average most of the month.  Last night's rain spike hit 140cfs, barely and briefly surpassing the average of 135cfs.
San Juan River flow has been below average most of the month. Last night’s rain spike hit 140cfs, barely and briefly surpassing the average of 135cfs.

September outlook…

The average low for September is 37 and the average high is 74. September precip averages 2.00″. September is a transition month. There is a 10 degree difference between average temps at the beginning of the month and the end of the month.

The CPC temperature outlook for September expects us to be around average.
The CPC temperature outlook for September expects us to be around average.
The CPC precipitation outlook for September expects precip to be around average.
The CPC precipitation outlook for September expects precip to be around average.
The Euro ensemble 45-day precip indicates 3.0" to 3.5″ for September – well above average and likely too optimistic
The Euro ensemble 45-day precip indicates 3.0″ to 3.5″ for September – well above average and likely too optimistic

My next forecast will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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