Goodbye Low, you gotta go…

Stormy Pagosa

There was quite a lightning show on Friday evening when I shot this image of Pagosa Peak. Storms moved through from the SE last night as well.

7-25-21: 8:30am update…

The upper level low that has disrupted our monsoon pattern (hey, but we still got rain) is now over Phoenix, AZ, heading west for a vacation over southern California. Almost the entire state of Arizona is under a Flash Flood Watch today as the low treks through the state. We will be slightly under the peripheral influence of the low today, with storms moving slightly north from south. Once the low moves into California we will go back to our typical monsoon flow again, increasing our rain odds this week. I’m also hoping that our skies will be less smoky as well.

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The upper level low is moving through AZ this morning and putting most of the state in a Flash Flood Watch. We continue to have some decent mid-level and surface moisture to fire up afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Last night some storms moved into our area from the SE around 10pm, giving most of us some more rain. I found 0.28 inches of rainfall in my COCORAHS gauge this morning. Looking at the latest remote sensors and COCORAHS reports, most of us got some rain over the past 24 hours.

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COCORAHS rainfall reports over the past 24 hours.
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Remote sensor rainfall totals over the past 24 hours

Rain odds continue to look great all week as high pressure over the plains sets us back up into our typical SW monsoonal flow. Storms will have very little movement this week, so when they do form over your house, you could get a fast heavy rain over a short period of time.

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The latest EURO model predicts that rain will continue to be in the forecast the rest of this week and into the first week of August!
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The latest 6-10 day rainfall forecast looks promising for most of the western half of the country.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A good chance for scattered afternoon storms with highs in the upper 70s. Look for storms to your south, moving north today. Rainfall totals will range from 0-0.50 today.

Monday-Friday: Continued good chances for afternoon thunderstorms. As is the case with convective activity, there will be rain lottery winners and losers. Each day we could see 0-0.50 inches of rain with double that total in the mountains. Lows will remain in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and highs in the upper 70’s.

For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions when storms move in! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning and small hail is always a possibility.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19404836 / 1995

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