The Piedra River valley this afternoon. Pic taken 7/24/2021
Saturday – 24 Jul 2021 – 4:40pm
Overall situation…
At Stevens Field the high so far today has been 82 and the low this morning was 53. The peak wind at the airfield so far today has been 22mph.
Most of the county got decent precip in the last 24 hours and 7 day precip totals are looking good!
*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid through late tonight for the southwest San Juan Mountains. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.
The upper level high pressure has retrograded to the west to the Great Basin while a low has moved east to west across central NM. The monsoon moisture plume is still with us and the atmosphere is still unstable. The high will slowly reposition over the Central Plains by the middle of the week. The moisture will plume will weaken a bit but not go away.
My forecast…
Today through Friday… In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams.
Highs will be mid-70s to the mid-80s. Lows will be upper-40s to mid-50s.
Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 82 | 92 / 1940 | 47 | 35 / 1973 |
Mark will take over tomorrow.
– Shawn
