Streams are high, everything is green and more rain will fall…

The Piedra River valley this afternoon. Pic taken 7/24/2021

The Piedra River valley this afternoon. Pic taken 7/24/2021

Saturday – 24 Jul 2021 – 4:40pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high so far today has been 82 and the low this morning was 53. The peak wind at the airfield so far today has been 22mph.

Most of the county got decent precip in the last 24 hours and 7 day precip totals are looking good!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals range from 0.13” to 0.99”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals range from 0.13” to 0.99”
CoCoRaHS 7-day precip totals range from 0.49” to 2.17”
CoCoRaHS 7-day precip totals range from 0.49” to 2.17”

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid through late tonight for the southwest San Juan Mountains. ***  This does not include Pagosa Springs.  However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.

San Juan River flow went from a low near 70cfs to nearly 600cfs with the recent rains.  Streams are high and flowing like chocolate milk.
San Juan River flow went from a low near 70cfs to nearly 600cfs with the recent rains.  Streams are high and flowing like chocolate milk.
The Piedra River this morning – 7/24/2021
The Piedra River this morning – 7/24/2021

The upper level high pressure has retrograded to the west to the Great Basin while a low has moved east to west across central NM.  The monsoon moisture plume is still with us and the atmosphere is still unstable.  The high will slowly reposition over the Central Plains by the middle of the week. The moisture will plume will weaken a bit but not go away.

Infrared satellite this afternoon shows most of the thunderstorm activity to our west so far today.
Infrared satellite this afternoon shows most of the thunderstorm activity to our west so far today.
Radar this afternoon shows most of the county missing the showers so far today.  Cells are moving east to west.
Radar this afternoon shows most of the county missing the showers so far today.  Cells are moving east to west.

My forecast…

Today through Friday… In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams.

Highs will be mid-70s to the mid-80s.  Lows will be upper-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town, and up to 1.0” in our nearby mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town, and up to 1.0” in our nearby mountains.
NBM precip through Thursday at midnight shows 0.5” to 0.75”in the valley and up to 1.75” in our mountains. Individual cells can drop a quick 0.50” to 1.0” in small areas and amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip through Thursday at midnight shows 0.5” to 0.75” in the valley and up to 1.75” in our mountains. Individual cells can drop a quick 0.50” to 1.0” in small areas and amounts will vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19404735 / 1973

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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