Warm, dry, breezy, and a little smoky…

Fair weather cumulus clouds.  As these clouds develop, they are flattening out – limited vertical growth.  This happens when ridging acts as a cap. – 6/20/2021 at 11:35am

Sunday – 20 Jun 2021 – 1:00pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 88 and the low this morning was 48. Yesterday’s peak wind was 29mph.

Smoke update…

*** There is not a Red Flag Warning today for Archuleta County.  However, it will continue to be dry, warm, breezy, and vegetation is also drying out.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

My forecast…

Rest of today through Tuesday… We’ll continue to see afternoon cumulus clouds, and periods of smoke. One or two of these fair weather cumulus clouds could break through the ridge and turn into an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the mountains.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range each day. The windy spots could hit 30mph Monday and Tuesday.

High temps will be mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be low 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday through Sunday… Our giant high pressure ridge will move very slowly to our east and start weakening.  Precipitable water and instability will gradually increase leading to a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Showers will be few and far between.  Sadly, because we’re so dry, they might produce more wind and lightning than rain.  Increased southwest flow aloft will lead to gusty afternoon winds and potentially more smoke.

Highs will be lower 80s to lower 90s and lows will be 40-50.

Afternoon winds will peak around 25mph, though isolated convective gusts to 35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Pagosa Springs historical data

My next post will be Tuesday afternoon unless something pops up.  Arleen is working hard on a summer monsoon post as I type. Check out her monsoon outlook later today!

– Shawn