Warm, dry, breezy, and a little smoky…

Fair weather cumulus clouds. As these clouds develop, they are flattening out – limited vertical growth. This happens when ridging acts as a cap. - 6/20/2021 at 11:35am

Fair weather cumulus clouds.  As these clouds develop, they are flattening out – limited vertical growth.  This happens when ridging acts as a cap. – 6/20/2021 at 11:35am

Sunday – 20 Jun 2021 – 1:00pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 88 and the low this morning was 48. Yesterday’s peak wind was 29mph.

Smoke update…

Smoke is trapped under the big high pressure and spinning around it clockwise.  Northwest flow aloft is keeping the thicker smoke to our south.  Starting late Tuesday/early Wednesday flow will turn towards the southwest and could push more smoke into our area.
Smoke is trapped under the big high pressure and spinning around it clockwise.  Northwest flow aloft is keeping the thicker smoke to our south.  Starting late Tuesday/early Wednesday flow will turn towards the southwest and could push more smoke into our area.

*** There is not a Red Flag Warning today for Archuleta County.  However, it will continue to be dry, warm, breezy, and vegetation is also drying out.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

Current satellite shows the high pressure over southwest Arizona and the ridge extending northwest through Nevada.  This results in northwest flow aloft over us which is pushing our fair weather cumulus clouds towards the southeast.
Current satellite shows the high pressure over southwest Arizona and the ridge extending northwest through Nevada.  This results in northwest flow aloft over us which is pushing our fair weather cumulus clouds towards the southeast. 

My forecast…

Rest of today through Tuesday… We’ll continue to see afternoon cumulus clouds, and periods of smoke. One or two of these fair weather cumulus clouds could break through the ridge and turn into an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the mountains.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range each day. The windy spots could hit 30mph Monday and Tuesday.

High temps will be mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be low 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday through Sunday… Our giant high pressure ridge will move very slowly to our east and start weakening.  Precipitable water and instability will gradually increase leading to a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Showers will be few and far between.  Sadly, because we’re so dry, they might produce more wind and lightning than rain.  Increased southwest flow aloft will lead to gusty afternoon winds and potentially more smoke.

Highs will be lower 80s to lower 90s and lows will be 40-50.

Afternoon winds will peak around 25mph, though isolated convective gusts to 35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows less 0.05” near town and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  This is all spotty afternoon convective precip so some folks will do better and some will do worse.
Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows less 0.05” near town and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  This is all spotty afternoon convective precip so some folks will do better and some will do worse.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8092 / 19893728 / 1973

My next post will be Tuesday afternoon unless something pops up.  Arleen is working hard on a summer monsoon post as I type. Check out her monsoon outlook later today!

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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