Precip summary and great weather this week!

Our precip totals this week. The region got a much needed soaking!

Our precip totals this week.  The region got a much needed soaking!

Sunday – 23 May 2021 – 10:00am

Overall situation…

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 71.  The low this morning was 37.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 54mph.  The colder spots had lows in the upper 20s this morning. ** The average last freeze is 31 May. **

Precip summary…

Last night the eastern part of the county got a good lightning show and a good soaking.  24-hour reports east of Hwy 84 range from 0.25” to nearly 0.40”.  Most of the rest of the county got less than 0.10” in the last 24 hours.

Mark got a great time lapse of yesterday’s storms!

7 day precip totals…

Since Monday most of the county got over a half inch of rain.  Locations near town and north of town got over an inch.  The highest 7-day CoCoRaHS report was 1.84” up by Four Mile.

CoCoRaHS precip amounts for the last 7 days
CoCoRaHS precip amounts for the last 7 days
The NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimates. I put * over Durango, Arboles, Pagosa, and Chama.  This product estimates precip from multiple sources.  It’s not prefect but does a good job.  Note the 2+ inches that fell over much of the San Juans.  This was snow above timberline so it’s possible that 2 feet of new snow fell in the higher parts of that area.
The NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimates. I put * over Durango, Arboles, Pagosa, and Chama. This product estimates precip from multiple sources. It’s not prefect but does a good job. Note the 2+ inches that fell over much of the San Juans. This was snow above timberline so it’s possible that 2 feet of new snow fell in the higher parts of that area.

After Mark did a great job with a busy weather week, my challenge will be figuring out how much sun we’ll see and how pleasant the temps will be!

The main low that has been spinning to our northwest is finally going to eject northeast into Canada.  Drier air is moving into the region and I expect a nice week.  I don’t see any significant systems for the next 7-10 days.

Water vapor shows the main low over Idaho.  It will move northeast into Canada over the next 24 hours.  The dry air to our southwest will move into our region.
Water vapor shows the main low over Idaho.  It will move northeast into Canada over the next 24 hours.  The dry air to our southwest will move into our region.

My forecast…

Today through next Sunday… This morning we’ll see lots of altocumulus clouds and then clouds decreasing through the afternoon. I don’t expect any showers.  The rest of the week, other than a few cumulus clouds over the mountains in the afternoons, I expect lots of sun and dry weather. Wednesday could be the exception as a dry system moves through with more clouds and stronger winds.

Today will be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid-50s to low 60s.  Lows tomorrow morning will range from the mid-20s to mid-30s.  Tomorrow will be 5 degrees warmer and then we’ll see 70s the rest of the week.  As far as plants go, most of us will be good to leave them out starting Wednesday night.  The cold spots will still cut it close this week. 

This afternoon winds will peak in the 25-35mph range.  The rest of the week winds will peak in the 20-25mph range though the windy spots could see gusts to 30mph Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday.

The NBM precip for the next 7 days has zero for western Colorado.  We’ll see lots of sun and pleasant temps!
The NBM precip for the next 7 days has zero for western Colorado.  We’ll see lots of sun and pleasant temps!

River Flow

Area streams are running high due to recent rainfall and high country run-off. San Juan River flow peaked around 1,450cfs the last two nights.  I still don’t think we have seen the highest flows. That will likely happen by the end of this week.

San Juan River flow over the last week
San Juan River flow over the last week

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7085 / 19843215 / 1930

Unless something pops up, my next post will be Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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7 Responses

  1. The winds 5 miles NNW north of downtown PS were very bad. I had gusts up to 47 MPH which snapped off two large Ponderosa pines. My rain levels were notably below what you show on the map ..only .79 inches

    1. Frank, so sorry to hear the wind snapped a few of your Ponderosas. That’s impressive! The wind may have higher up at tree level – a sheer wind.

      The precip total map was for the whole week. If you had .79” for Saturday, you did well. We only had .10” for the day.

      Thank you for sharing with us! -Arleen

  2. 1.72″ for the week, Lake Forest area!!!!! Fridays rain was (1.12″) the biggest rain event for us since August 25th 2020.

  3. Thank you all for the great weather reports. I’ll have to check my rainfall amounts when I get home from work later this afternoon!!

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