Great weather through the weekend!

Satellite shows clear skies over much of the western US. The ridge, currently along the West Coast, will move over us on Sunday, allowing the next system to move through on Monday - 4/29/2021 at 10:30am

Satellite shows clear skies over much of the western US. The ridge, currently along the West Coast, will move over us on Sunday, allowing the next system to move through on Monday  – 4/29/2021 at 10:30am

Thursday – 29 Apr 2021 – 11:15am

Overall situation…

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 58 and the low this morning was 31.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 20mph.

An upper level ridge is building across the western US and will keep our weather nice through Sunday.  Our next system will move through on Monday, bringing more clouds, a few showers, and cooler temperatures.

My forecast…

Today through Sunday… Scattered cumulus clouds will develop each afternoon.  On Sunday spotty afternoon showers are possible over the mountains. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph today through Saturday and then 25-30mph on Sunday.  I’m keeping an eye on higher winds and increased fire danger Sunday.

High temps will mostly be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, though the warm spots will be near 80 on SaturdayThere is a good chance we will have a winner for the 75 degree contest!

Low temps will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

*** Local area streams will significantly rise this weekend due to high country run-off. ***

29 Apr 2021 am surface map
The surface weather analysis for Saturday morning shows the high pressure nearly over our heads and Monday’s system moving through Idaho.  Like the last few storms, the best precip will stay to our north.

Monday… Expect more clouds and a chance for afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two.  High temps will be upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be low 20s to low 30s. Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range

29 Apr 2021 am NBM precip
The NBM precip through Monday at midnight shows less than 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Note that the Front Range is hogging most of the moisture again.
29 Apr 2021 am NBM snowfall
The NBM snowfall through Monday at midnight shows no accumulation over the valley and 1-2” in our mountains.  A few snowflakes are possible in the valley early Monday morning, but I agree with this product and don’t expect any accumulation.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6179 / 19812710 / 1996

I hope to get motivated this afternoon and do a summary for April, otherwise, my next post will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

    1. Bob, I expect winds less than 20mph, though there is a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers which could make the winds more erratic. If you see a big dark cloud nearby, you could experience a brief period of gustier winds.

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