Can you say “déjà vu?”

Rockin Robin

Our resident robin is enjoying this beautiful, but windy weather this afternoon…

4-24-21 4:30pm Update: Warmer temps this weekend along with those pesky winds.

It’s great seeing our temps rise into the 60’s this afternoon but unfortunately or winds continue to gust to near 30mph as yet another Red Flag Warning has been issued for today and tomorrow and will likely be extended into early next week as our next trough approaches.

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Our semi-permanent Red Flag Warnings continue through at least Sunday

Sunday will be a little warmer with temps flirting with 70 degrees downtown before we start cooling down again Monday thru Wednesday as our next storm moves through. Our trough is currently hanging out in the Pacific ocean but will move SE over the next couple of days and will start impacting our precipitation chances by Monday night.

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Our future storm is hanging out in the Pacific ocean this afternoon.
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Upper level winds indicate where our trough-low will be located Monday evening. This will put us in a SW flow and give us a chance for rain-snow.

Tuesday morning will be our best chance for seeing a rain-snow mix as the trough puts us into an upper level SW flow and brings in the best odds for precipitation. It will stay mostly cloudy and windy, feeling a whole lot more like winter than spring with highs in the lower 40’s. The trough moves through during the day on Wednesday giving us additional rain-snow chances and a possible thunderstorm. We should clear out by Wednesday night and start warming up again by Thursday under sunny skies. By Friday, 70’s for our high looks very likely! Lows will remain in the 20’s all week.

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The latest GFS model run does a good job capturing my forecast vibes on this next system.

My Déjà Vu Forecast (almost): If you find 0.30 of precipitation through Wednesday consider yourself lucky with this system. I think most of the valley and near mountain areas will see only 0.10-0.20 of precipitation and some possible snow showers at night and during the mornings. The mountains could see 2-4 inches of snow. Winds will continue to be a nuisance gusting to 30mph or higher over the next four days. There may be another storm coming in for next weekend but its a little too far out to start forecasting that one.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6276 / 1987269 / 1913

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