Can you hear this picture? A western meadowlark serenaded us this morning!

Can you hear this picture? A western meadowlark serenaded us this morning… 4/9/2021

Friday – 9 Apr 2021 – 10:40am

Reminder… Get your contest guess in for a chance to win a $25 gift certificate at 4 Corners Organics.  These local gardening experts will set you up for success!  Please see the Facebook and web post from Monday evening, 5 April and make sure to put your guess in the comments of that post.

Overall situation…

Yesterday’s high at the airport was 62 – a few degrees above average.  Lows were in the mid 20s.  The diurnal temperature swing averaged 35-40 degrees.  Peak winds at the airfield were 34.5mph and we hit 30mph just north of Turkey Springs.

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning valid noon to 9pm today.  “A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire danger”. ***

Red Flag warning noon to 9pm today

Avalanche Danger: “Low” transitioning to “Moderate” as temps warm during the day.

The upper level ridge will stay in control until Monday night.  By Tuesday, the ridge is expected to retrograde further to the west and this will allow an upper level low to drop out of the north and spin over the Great Basin most of next week.  Pieces of energy will move across our region and keep us unsettled.  We’ll see periods of lowland rain and high country snow.

This satellite image was right around sunrise this morning.  Except for clouds over northern Colorado, most of the region is clear.
This satellite image was right around sunrise this morning.  Except for clouds over northern Colorado, most of the region is clear.

My forecast…

Today through Monday…  We’ll continue to see lots of sun with a few afternoon clouds.   Each afternoon winds will peak in the 20-30mph range. Temperatures will continue to be a little warmer than normal with 60-65 for highs.  Lows overnight will be in the low to upper 20s.

The is the Euro 500mb at noon today.  This is roughly at 18,000ft and gives us a good look at the overall weather pattern. “Cool” colors like over northeast Colorado and Nebraska indicate possible weather systems and unsettled weather.  “Warm” colors like over the entire West Coast indicate ridging and stable weather.  Something else to note is the contour gradient. Lines closer together equals a tighter a gradient and stronger winds.
The is the Euro 500mb at noon today.  This is roughly at 18,000ft and gives us a good look at the overall weather pattern. “Cool” colors like over northeast Colorado and Nebraska indicate possible weather systems and unsettled weather.  “Warm” colors like over the entire West Coast indicate ridging and stable weather.  Something else to note is the contour gradient. Lines closer together equals a tighter gradient and stronger winds.

Monday night and Tuesday… Clouds will increase Monday night with a chance for showers.  The valley could see “rainflakes” during the coldest part of the night, otherwise it will be rain.  Our mountains above 9,000ft will get 2-4” of snow.  Highs will be mid to upper 50s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s.  Winds will peak the 20-25mph range.

This is the Euro 500mb at noon on Tuesday.  The ridge has moved west farther off the coast which will allow a low to sit and spin over the Great Basin.  Note the strong ridging to the north across British Columbia.  This is a “high over low” pattern known more properly as a Rex Block.  This has potential to keep us unsettled through most of next week.
This is the Euro 500mb at noon on Tuesday.  The ridge has moved west farther off the coast which will allow a low to sit and spin over the Great Basin.  Note the strong ridging to the north across British Columbia.  This is a “high over low” pattern known more properly as a Rex Block.  This has potential to keep us unsettled through most of next week.
This is the University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek.  By Thursday evening the GFS shows 20” and the Canadian shows 15”.
This is the University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek.  By Thursday evening the GFS shows 20” and the Canadian shows 15”.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5775 / 1989236 / 1973

Arleen will do the next post tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

    1. The last 10” in our yard disappeared in 3 days! It was amazing! You are so wise to embrace spring!

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