Showers winding down across Pagosa Country – more snow Tuesday

Sunday – 14 Mar 2021 – 2:45pm

Overall situation…

Snow reports in the valley ranged from a half inch to nearly 3” in the Mill Creek area, east of town.  Folks down south near Chromo and Chama were the big winners with 9-10”! Thanks a bunch for your reports and pictures!

Wolf Creek has reported another 3” since they opened to total 18” since yesterday morning.

The much publicized low continues to spin over eastern Colorado.  It will slowly move east out of Colorado overnight.  Clouds and precip will gradually decrease west to east through the night.

Transient ridging will give us a dry day tomorrow. Tuesday the next system will move through northern New Mexico and give us a shot at precip. Ridging will keep us dry Wednesday through much of Saturday.  Then I’m tracking a potentially decent storm Saturday night through Monday.

My forecast…

Tonight… Clouds will gradually clear and snowshowers will end by midnight.  Lucky spots in the valley could get a half inch of additional snow and the mountains will get 2-3” before the snow ends.  Patchy fog is possible in low lying areas after midnight.  Lows will be 5-15.

Monday…Partly cloudy during the day and then clouds will increase overnight.  Afternoon winds up to 30mph are possible in the wind prone areas.  Highs will be low to mid-40s and lows will be low teens to near 20.

Tuesday… More clouds and a good chance for snowshowers and even a possible thunderstorm. The best chance for precip will be late morning to evening.  Highs will be upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will peak around 25mph.

Snow amounts:

– 1-3” in the valley. It will be heavy wet snow that will struggle to accumulate.

– 4-8” in the mountains

Wednesday through most of Saturday…Partly cloudy skies and dry.  Highs Wednesday will be mid to upper 40s and then lower to upper 50s the rest of the period.

Today’s Pagosa Springs climatology

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4762 / 195514-21 / 1913

I’ll do a storm summary tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

14 Mar 2021 pm Water vapor
Water vapor shows the low spinning over eastern Colorado.  It’s not moving much.  Tuesday’s system is off the coast.
14 Mar 2021 pm WRF 12 hour snowfall
The high resolution WRF shows 1-2” across the valley and up to 10” in the mountains 10am to 10pm Tuesday. Snow will have a hard time sticking in the valley due to temps above freezing.
14 Mar 2021 pm UoU Wolf Creek ensemble snow
The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall shows 7-8” with Tuesday’s system and hints at the next system at the end of the period.

End of post ———————————————————————————————————————————–

Sunday – 14 Mar 2021 – 8:00am

Snowfall in the valley has ranged from a dusting, to 0.7” near the golf course to 1.6” south of Echo Canyon Reservoir. As of 7:45am, we haven’t gotten many reports.  Wolf Creek reported 15” of new snow this morning.  Roads in the area have snow on them and could be slick.

*** There is a Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains for an additional 3-8″ of snow and winds gusting to 50mph valid until 6am Monday. ***

The main low is now spinning over eastern Colorado and wrapping moisture into our region.  We’ll see occasional snowshowers through the day. Lucky spots in the valley could see up to an inch of additional snow today.

Highs today will be in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

Up at Wolf Creek, they could get another 4-8” of snow.  Along the top, temps will range from around 5 this morning to the mid-teens this afternoon.  Winds will peak in the 35-40mph range and wind chills down to -20 are possible.

I’ll do a more thorough post later today.

– Shawn

14 Mar 2021 zm Wolf Creek snow report

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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